--- title: "LFGER case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "LFGER ($36.08) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 22 items with odds, observed 91.48% over 161 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lfger rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [LFGER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lfger) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · LFGER A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lfger?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lfger?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lfger) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lfger?window=all) Price · $36.08 · 72.16 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $32.47 from 22 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.48% · 161 openings, odds method Variance · 8.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 79 openings · below min 7 days · 77.27% ±47.36 153 openings 30 days · 91.48% ±46.17 161 openings since tracking started · 91.48% ±46.17 161 openings 26.5% 93.0% 159.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lfger?window=24h) | 79 | 93.14% ±65.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lfger?window=7d) | 153 | 77.27% ±47.4 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lfger) | 161 | 91.48% ±46.2 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lfger?window=all) | 161 | 91.48% ±46.2 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 161 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,288 6,576 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,086 6,171 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,946 5,893 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,877 5,754 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,643 5,286 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $493 987 coins | 7.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Spruce DDPAT (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-spruce-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $478 957 coins | 7.4% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Badlands (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-badlands-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $461 922 coins | 7.1% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $434 868 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $423 847 coins | 6.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $235 470 coins | 7.2% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $227 454 coins | 7.0% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.24× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $208 416 coins | 6.4% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.86× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $201 402 coins | 6.2% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.86× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $181 363 coins | 5.6% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $130 261 coins | 4.0% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 10.0% | $76.94 154 coins | 23.7% | 20 | 16.1 | 1.24× | | [UMP-45 \| Mudder (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-factory-new) | 16.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.0% | 20 | 25.8 | 0.78× | | [MP9 \| Slide (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-field-tested) | 16.0% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.0% | 33 | 25.8 | 1.28× | | [MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-field-tested) | 16.0% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 26 | 25.8 | 1.01× | | [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-well-worn) | 16.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 23 | 25.8 | 0.89× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 17.4% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 26 | 28.1 | 0.93× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=lfger) [MP9 | Slide (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-field-tested) Hidden $36.08 72.16 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC [MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-field-tested) Hidden $36.08 72.16 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $36.08 72.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC [MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-field-tested) Hidden $36.08 72.16 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC [MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-field-tested) Hidden $36.08 72.16 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $36.08 72.16 coins $76.94 154 coins 2.13x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC [MP9 | Slide (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-slide-field-tested) Hidden $36.08 72.16 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC [MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-field-tested) [alexpaz050](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/alexpaz050) $36.08 72.16 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $36.08 72.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $36.08 72.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $36.08 | 90.00% | 22 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.5% high 0.0% classified 0.5% extraordinary 0.5% Extraordinary 0.5% Covert 0.5% covert knife 3.0% gold 1.0% Industrial Grade 10.0% Common 16.0% consumer 16.0% #4b69ff 33.5% industrial 16.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt