--- title: "Light case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Light ($16.66) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 119.12% over 240 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/light rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Light](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/light) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Light A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/light?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/light?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/light) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/light?window=all) Price · $16.66 · 33.32 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $14.99 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 119.12% · 240 openings, odds method Variance · 8.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 118.95% ±38.73 210 openings 30 days · 119.12% ±36.23 240 openings since tracking started · 119.12% ±36.23 240 openings 13.0% 154.0% 295.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/light?window=24h) | 16 | 153.83% ±140.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/light?window=7d) | 210 | 118.95% ±38.7 | +1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/light) | 240 | 119.12% ±36.2 | +1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/light?window=all) | 240 | 119.12% ±36.2 | +1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 240 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $236 471 coins | 47.2% | 11 | 7.2 | 1.53× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $129 258 coins | 25.8% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.97× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $100 201 coins | 20.1% | 9 | 7.2 | 1.25× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $45.21 90.41 coins | 3.0% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× | | [P250 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $23.04 46.07 coins | 1.5% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $22.86 45.72 coins | 1.5% | 7 | 2.4 | 2.92× | | [MP7 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $6.56 13.11 coins | 0.4% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× | | [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $4.97 9.94 coins | 0.3% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× | | [Charm \| Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) | 1 in 100 | $0.50 1 coins | 0.0% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 85.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 195 | 204.0 | 0.96× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=light) [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $16.66 33.32 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $16.66 33.32 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $16.66 33.32 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $16.66 33.32 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $16.66 33.32 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $16.66 33.32 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $16.66 33.32 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $16.66 33.32 coins $129 258 coins 7.74x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $16.66 33.32 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $16.66 33.32 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.66 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 3.0% covert knife 6.0% extraordinary 1.0% mil spec 2.0% covert 1.0% Legendary 1.0% #4b69ff 1.0% consumer 85.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt