--- title: "LilGriggyItaly case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "LilGriggyItaly ($4.54) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 96.17% over 40.5K openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lilgriggyitaly rendered: 2026-11-12T04:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [LilGriggyItaly](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lilgriggyitaly) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · LilGriggyItaly A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lilgriggyitaly?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lilgriggyitaly?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lilgriggyitaly) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lilgriggyitaly?window=all) Price · $4.54 · 9.08 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 96.17% · 40.5K openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 80.86% ±32.49 5,568 openings 7 days · 98.16% ±13.99 32.7K openings 30 days · 96.17% ±12.30 40.5K openings since tracking started · 96.17% ±12.30 40.5K openings 47.5% 80.7% 114.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lilgriggyitaly?window=24h) | 5,568 | 80.86% ±32.5 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lilgriggyitaly?window=7d) | 32.7K | 98.16% ±14.0 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lilgriggyitaly) | 40.5K | 96.17% ±12.3 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lilgriggyitaly?window=all) | 40.5K | 96.17% ±12.3 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Chicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $4.54 9.08 coins $2,792 5,584 coins 615.0x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $4.54 9.08 coins $2,792 5,584 coins 615.0x 2026-11-09 08:14 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $4.54 9.08 coins $2,792 5,584 coins 615.0x 2026-11-09 00:43 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $4.54 9.08 coins $2,792 5,584 coins 615.0x 2026-11-06 22:45 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $4.54 9.08 coins $2,792 5,584 coins 615.0x 2026-11-06 09:50 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $4.54 9.08 coins $2,792 5,584 coins 615.0x 2026-11-03 00:52 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $4.54 9.08 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 279.0x 2026-11-11 20:27 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $4.54 9.08 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 279.0x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $4.54 9.08 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 279.0x 2026-11-11 04:20 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $4.54 9.08 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 279.0x 2026-11-10 10:22 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=lilgriggyitaly) [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $4.54 9.08 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 03:43 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $4.54 9.08 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 03:43 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $4.54 9.08 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 03:43 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $4.54 9.08 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 03:43 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $4.54 9.08 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 03:43 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $4.54 9.08 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 03:43 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $4.54 9.08 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 03:40 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $4.54 9.08 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 03:40 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $4.54 9.08 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 03:40 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $4.54 9.08 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 03:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $2,792 (615.0x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 96.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $96.17 on average: an expected loss of $3.83 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt