--- title: "LMG Chaser case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "LMG Chaser ($159.03) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 79.10% over 24 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lmg-chaser rendered: 2026-11-11T21:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [LMG Chaser](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lmg-chaser) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · LMG Chaser A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lmg-chaser?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lmg-chaser?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lmg-chaser) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lmg-chaser?window=all) Price · $159.03 · 318 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $143.12 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.10% · 24 openings, odds method Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 46.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 54.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 24 openings · below min 30 days · 24 openings · below min since tracking started · 24 openings · below min 31.5% 79.0% 126.5% **Small sample.** 24 openings and 11.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lmg-chaser?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lmg-chaser?window=7d) | 24 | 79.10% ±46.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lmg-chaser) | 24 | 79.10% ±46.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lmg-chaser?window=all) | 24 | 79.10% ±46.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Negev \| Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,598 3,196 coins | 11.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Negev \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 45.0% | $253 506 coins | 79.5% | 11 | 10.8 | 1.02× | | [M249 \| Blizzard Marbleized (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-blizzard-marbleized-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $89.99 180 coins | 3.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [Souvenir M249 \| Gator Mesh (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-gator-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $77.52 155 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [Negev \| Palm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-palm-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $18.92 37.84 coins | 0.7% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.50× | | [M249 \| Shipping Forecast (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-shipping-forecast-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $12.53 25.05 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [M249 \| Jungle DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $11.24 22.47 coins | 0.4% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× | | [M249 \| Shipping Forecast (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-shipping-forecast-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $9.84 19.68 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [Negev \| Infrastructure (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-infrastructure-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $9.66 19.31 coins | 0.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [M249 \| Humidor (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-humidor-factory-new) | 19.0% | $9.59 19.17 coins | 1.3% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.32× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=lmg-chaser) [M249 | Jungle DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $159 318 coins $11.24 22.47 coins 0.07x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [Negev | Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-anodized-navy-factory-new) Hidden $159 318 coins $253 506 coins 1.59x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [Negev | Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-anodized-navy-factory-new) Hidden $159 318 coins $253 506 coins 1.59x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [Negev | Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-anodized-navy-factory-new) Hidden $159 318 coins $253 506 coins 1.59x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [Negev | Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-anodized-navy-factory-new) Hidden $159 318 coins $253 506 coins 1.59x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [Negev | Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-anodized-navy-factory-new) Hidden $159 318 coins $253 506 coins 1.59x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [M249 | Humidor (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-humidor-factory-new) Hidden $159 318 coins $9.59 19.17 coins 0.06x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [M249 | Humidor (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-humidor-factory-new) [Tomex](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Tomex) $159 318 coins $9.59 19.17 coins 0.06x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [Negev | Infrastructure (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-infrastructure-factory-new) Hidden $159 318 coins $9.66 19.31 coins 0.06x 2026-11-07 02:24 UTC [M249 | Jungle DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $159 318 coins $11.24 22.47 coins 0.07x 2026-11-07 02:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $159 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 1 5.0% classified 1.0% #4b69ff 45.0% Industrial Grade 15.0% industrial 5.0% #87c7ff 5.0% consumer 5.0% Rare 19.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt