--- title: "Lockdown case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lockdown ($31.13) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 117.13% over 63 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lockdown rendered: 2026-11-11T15:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Lockdown](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lockdown) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Lockdown A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lockdown?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lockdown?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lockdown) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lockdown?window=all) Price · $31.13 · 62.25 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $28.01 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 117.13% · 63 openings, odds method Variance · 5.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 24 openings · below min 7 days · 55 openings · below min 30 days · 63 openings · below min since tracking started · 63 openings · below min 44.0% 136.8% 229.5% **Small sample.** 63 openings and 3.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lockdown?window=24h) | 24 | 136.68% ±92.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lockdown?window=7d) | 55 | 130.43% ±60.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lockdown) | 63 | 117.13% ±56.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lockdown?window=all) | 63 | 117.13% ±56.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 63 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,505 3,010 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,405 2,810 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,258 2,517 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,252 2,504 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $419 837 coins | 15.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $343 686 coins | 18.4% | 3 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $211 423 coins | 18.9% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.90× | | [Souvenir Galil AR \| VariCamo (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-varicamo-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $75.08 150 coins | 13.4% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $49.51 99.01 coins | 10.6% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.32× | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $34.03 68.06 coins | 7.3% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.06× | | [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) | 10.0% | $16.57 33.13 coins | 5.9% | 6 | 6.3 | 0.95× | | [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-factory-new) | 10.0% | $13.59 27.18 coins | 4.9% | 5 | 6.3 | 0.79× | | [G3SG1 \| Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) | 10.0% | $5.02 10.04 coins | 1.8% | 7 | 6.3 | 1.11× | | [Dual Berettas \| Briar (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-briar-factory-new) | 10.0% | $3.02 6.04 coins | 1.1% | 10 | 6.3 | 1.59× | | [Tec-9 \| Bamboo Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboo-forest-field-tested) | 15.0% | $1.78 3.55 coins | 1.0% | 10 | 9.4 | 1.06× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 23.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 10 | 14.5 | 0.69× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=lockdown) [Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-factory-new) Hidden $31.13 62.25 coins $13.59 27.18 coins 0.44x 2026-11-10 22:50 UTC [Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-factory-new) Hidden $31.13 62.25 coins $13.59 27.18 coins 0.44x 2026-11-10 22:50 UTC [Tec-9 | Bamboo Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboo-forest-field-tested) Hidden $31.13 62.25 coins $1.78 3.55 coins 0.06x 2026-11-10 22:50 UTC [G3SG1 | Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) Hidden $31.13 62.25 coins $5.02 10.04 coins 0.16x 2026-11-10 22:50 UTC [AWP | Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) Hidden $31.13 62.25 coins $49.51 99.01 coins 1.59x 2026-11-10 22:50 UTC [Dual Berettas | Briar (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-briar-factory-new) Hidden $31.13 62.25 coins $3.02 6.04 coins 0.10x 2026-11-10 22:50 UTC [Tec-9 | Bamboo Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboo-forest-field-tested) Hidden $31.13 62.25 coins $1.78 3.55 coins 0.06x 2026-11-10 22:50 UTC [Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) [foulito](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/foulito) $31.13 62.25 coins $34.03 68.06 coins 1.09x 2026-11-10 22:50 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $31.13 62.25 coins $211 423 coins 6.79x 2026-11-10 22:48 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $31.13 62.25 coins $16.57 33.13 coins 0.53x 2026-11-10 22:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $31.13 | 89.99% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% covert 1.5% extraordinary 1.0% #ffd700 2.5% other 11.0% classified 16.0% restricted 10.0% mil spec 10.0% consumer 10.0% Consumer Grade 15.0% #4b69ff 23.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt