--- title: "Loco Lily case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Loco Lily ($48.01) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 89.10% over 340 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/loco-lily rendered: 2026-11-11T21:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Loco Lily](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/loco-lily) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Loco Lily A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/loco-lily?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/loco-lily?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/loco-lily) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/loco-lily?window=all) Price · $48.01 · 96.01 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $43.21 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.10% · 340 openings, odds method Variance · 13.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 14 openings · below min 7 days · 182 openings · below min 30 days · 89.10% ±39.01 340 openings since tracking started · 89.10% ±39.01 340 openings 38.5% 244.3% 450.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/loco-lily?window=24h) | 14 | 257.15% ±192.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/loco-lily?window=7d) | 182 | 92.40% ±53.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/loco-lily) | 340 | 89.10% ±39.0 | −0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/loco-lily?window=all) | 340 | 89.10% ±39.0 | −0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 340 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,638 3,277 coins | 37.9% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.88× | | [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $658 1,316 coins | 15.2% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.47× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $254 508 coins | 5.9% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.18× | | [Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-twin-turbo-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $166 333 coins | 3.8% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.88× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $137 273 coins | 3.2% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× | | [Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-fall-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $107 215 coins | 2.5% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $85.93 172 coins | 4.0% | 4 | 6.8 | 0.59× | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $75.38 151 coins | 3.5% | 9 | 6.8 | 1.32× | | [Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-berries-and-cherries-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $54.12 108 coins | 2.5% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.88× | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $45.68 91.35 coins | 4.2% | 12 | 13.6 | 0.88× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $32.09 64.17 coins | 3.0% | 10 | 13.6 | 0.74× | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 15.0% | $16.67 33.34 coins | 5.8% | 52 | 51.0 | 1.02× | | [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-factory-new) | 20.0% | $9.14 18.27 coins | 4.2% | 63 | 68.0 | 0.93× | | [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-factory-new) | 15.0% | $5.04 10.08 coins | 1.7% | 60 | 51.0 | 1.18× | | [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 15.0% | $4.53 9.06 coins | 1.6% | 47 | 51.0 | 0.92× | | [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $2.78 5.56 coins | 1.0% | 58 | 51.0 | 1.14× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) Hidden $48.01 96.01 coins $1,638 3,277 coins 34.13x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) Hidden $48.01 96.01 coins $1,638 3,277 coins 34.13x 2026-11-10 16:15 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) Hidden $48.01 96.01 coins $1,638 3,277 coins 34.13x 2026-11-03 13:34 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $48.01 96.01 coins $658 1,316 coins 13.71x 2026-11-07 01:54 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $48.01 96.01 coins $658 1,316 coins 13.71x 2026-11-06 13:24 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $48.01 96.01 coins $658 1,316 coins 13.71x 2026-11-03 19:01 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $48.01 96.01 coins $658 1,316 coins 13.71x 2026-11-03 13:32 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $48.01 96.01 coins $658 1,316 coins 13.71x 2026-11-02 22:06 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=loco-lily) [UMP-45 | Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-minimal-wear) Hidden $48.01 96.01 coins $2.78 5.56 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) Hidden $48.01 96.01 coins $4.53 9.06 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) Hidden $48.01 96.01 coins $4.53 9.06 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [UMP-45 | Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-minimal-wear) Hidden $48.01 96.01 coins $2.78 5.56 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-factory-new) Hidden $48.01 96.01 coins $9.14 18.27 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) Hidden $48.01 96.01 coins $4.53 9.06 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [UMP-45 | Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-minimal-wear) Hidden $48.01 96.01 coins $2.78 5.56 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-factory-new) Hidden $48.01 96.01 coins $9.14 18.27 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) Hidden $48.01 96.01 coins $16.67 33.34 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) Hidden $48.01 96.01 coins $16.67 33.34 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $48.01 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 57.0% covert 19.0% Classified 2.0% restricted 2.0% pink 20.0% best hit $1,638 (34.13x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt