--- title: "Lore Lootbox case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lore Lootbox ($76.23) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lore-lootbox rendered: 2026-11-11T17:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Lore Lootbox](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lore-lootbox) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Lore Lootbox A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lore-lootbox?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lore-lootbox?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lore-lootbox) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lore-lootbox?window=all) Price · $76.23 · 152 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $68.61 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lore-lootbox?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lore-lootbox?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lore-lootbox) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lore-lootbox?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,979 3,958 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 600 | $1,678 3,356 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 426 | $1,065 2,130 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 375 | $721 1,443 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $425 850 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $369 737 coins | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $284 567 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $227 454 coins | 9.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $188 376 coins | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $135 270 coins | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $99.78 200 coins | 7.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [XM1014 \| Ancient Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ancient-lore-field-tested) | 82.2% | $33.87 67.74 coins | 40.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=lore-lootbox) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $76.23 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 17.3% Covert 0.5% Restricted 82.2% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt