--- title: "Lore case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Lore ($15.76) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 61.37% over 920 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lore rendered: 2026-11-11T14:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Lore](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lore) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Lore A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lore?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lore?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lore) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lore?window=all) Price · $15.76 · 31.52 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $14.18 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 61.37% · 920 openings, odds method Variance · 34.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 33 openings · below min 7 days · 63.01% ±43.89 690 openings 30 days · 61.37% ±38.01 920 openings since tracking started · 61.37% ±38.01 920 openings -0.5% 137.3% 275.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lore?window=24h) | 33 | 73.40% ±200.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lore?window=7d) | 690 | 63.01% ±43.9 | −1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lore) | 920 | 61.37% ±38.0 | −1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lore?window=all) | 920 | 61.37% ±38.0 | −1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 920 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,317 4,635 coins | 16.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,678 3,356 coins | 11.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $677 1,353 coins | 4.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $52.99 106 coins | 3.7% | 8 | 9.2 | 0.87× | | [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 10.0% | $21.68 43.36 coins | 15.3% | 95 | 92.0 | 1.03× | | [P250 \| Splash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $15.02 30.03 coins | 31.8% | 287 | 276.0 | 1.04× | | [Tec-9 \| Titanium Bit (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-titanium-bit-factory-new) | 30.0% | $5.18 10.35 coins | 10.9% | 279 | 276.0 | 1.01× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 28.7% | $2.64 5.27 coins | 5.3% | 251 | 264.0 | 0.95× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=lore) [Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-titanium-bit-factory-new) Hidden $15.76 31.52 coins $5.18 10.35 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) Hidden $15.76 31.52 coins $2.64 5.27 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC [P250 | Splash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.76 31.52 coins $15.02 30.03 coins 0.95x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) Hidden $15.76 31.52 coins $2.64 5.27 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC [Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-titanium-bit-factory-new) Hidden $15.76 31.52 coins $5.18 10.35 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC [M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) [fortune](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/fortune) $15.76 31.52 coins $21.68 43.36 coins 1.38x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC [Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-titanium-bit-factory-new) Hidden $15.76 31.52 coins $5.18 10.35 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 10:46 UTC [Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-titanium-bit-factory-new) Hidden $15.76 31.52 coins $5.18 10.35 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 10:46 UTC [Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-titanium-bit-factory-new) Hidden $15.76 31.52 coins $5.18 10.35 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 10:46 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) Hidden $15.76 31.52 coins $2.64 5.27 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 10:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.76 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.2% epic 0.1% restricted 61.0% classified 28.7% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt