--- title: "Lost Treasure case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lost Treasure ($144.31) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 83.80% over 764 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lost-treasure rendered: 2026-11-11T15:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Lost Treasure](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lost-treasure) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Lost Treasure A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lost-treasure?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lost-treasure?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lost-treasure) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lost-treasure?window=all) Price · $144.31 · 289 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $129.88 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.80% · 764 openings, odds method Variance · 12.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 26 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 48 openings · below min 7 days · 83.21% ±26.23 686 openings 30 days · 83.80% ±24.86 764 openings since tracking started · 83.80% ±24.86 764 openings 56.5% 171.8% 287.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lost-treasure?window=24h) | 48 | 187.27% ±99.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lost-treasure?window=7d) | 686 | 83.21% ±26.2 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lost-treasure) | 764 | 83.80% ±24.9 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lost-treasure?window=all) | 764 | 83.80% ±24.9 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 764 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $10.6K 21,246 coins | 8.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $3,948 7,896 coins | 10.6% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $3,195 6,389 coins | 11.1% | 7 | 3.4 | 2.04× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,241 2,481 coins | 9.6% | 9 | 7.6 | 1.18× | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,182 2,363 coins | 9.1% | 4 | 7.6 | 0.52× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,125 2,251 coins | 8.7% | 1 | 7.6 | 0.13× | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-radiation-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $797 1,594 coins | 6.1% | 6 | 7.6 | 0.79× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 33 | $451 903 coins | 10.4% | 25 | 22.9 | 1.09× | | [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $301 602 coins | 9.3% | 32 | 30.6 | 1.05× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $101 202 coins | 4.7% | 44 | 45.8 | 0.96× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $63.24 126 coins | 2.9% | 45 | 45.8 | 0.98× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $51.73 103 coins | 3.2% | 52 | 61.1 | 0.85× | | [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $40.42 80.83 coins | 2.5% | 58 | 61.1 | 0.95× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $33.56 67.12 coins | 2.1% | 75 | 61.1 | 1.23× | | [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $22.78 45.56 coins | 1.4% | 71 | 61.1 | 1.16× | | [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 44.1% | $0.68 1.35 coins | 0.2% | 334 | 336.9 | 0.99× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $144 289 coins $10.6K 21,246 coins 73.61x 2026-11-06 16:28 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $144 289 coins $3,195 6,389 coins 22.14x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-factory-new) Hidden $144 289 coins $3,195 6,389 coins 22.14x 2026-11-10 23:42 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-factory-new) Hidden $144 289 coins $3,195 6,389 coins 22.14x 2026-11-10 23:42 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-factory-new) Hidden $144 289 coins $3,195 6,389 coins 22.14x 2026-11-09 20:29 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-factory-new) Hidden $144 289 coins $3,195 6,389 coins 22.14x 2026-11-09 17:16 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-factory-new) [eklinga](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/eklinga) $144 289 coins $3,195 6,389 coins 22.14x 2026-11-04 18:52 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-factory-new) Hidden $144 289 coins $3,195 6,389 coins 22.14x 2026-11-03 21:28 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-boreal-forest-factory-new) [EliteRift1189](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/EliteRift1189) $144 289 coins $1,241 2,481 coins 8.60x 2026-11-11 15:42 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $144 289 coins $1,241 2,481 coins 8.60x 2026-11-09 20:28 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=lost-treasure) [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $144 289 coins $0.68 1.35 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $144 289 coins $0.68 1.35 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $144 289 coins $0.68 1.35 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $144 289 coins $0.68 1.35 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-field-tested) Hidden $144 289 coins $33.56 67.12 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [FAMAS | Afterimage (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-factory-new) Hidden $144 289 coins $40.42 80.83 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Convoy (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-field-tested) Hidden $144 289 coins $51.73 103 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) [EliteRift1189](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/EliteRift1189) $144 289 coins $0.68 1.35 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $144 289 coins $0.68 1.35 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:41 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Convoy (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-field-tested) Hidden $144 289 coins $51.73 103 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 15:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $144 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 20.1% legendary 0.4% extraordinary 17.4% restricted 45.1% #4B69FF 1.0% classified 16.0% best hit $10.6K (73.61x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt