--- title: "Lost case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Lost ($19.31) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 107.84% over 278 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lost rendered: 2026-11-11T14:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Lost](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lost) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Lost A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lost?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lost?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lost) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lost?window=all) Price · $19.31 · 38.62 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $17.38 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 107.84% · 278 openings, odds method Variance · 11.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 29 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 126.80% ±47.51 190 openings 30 days · 107.84% ±39.27 278 openings since tracking started · 107.84% ±39.27 278 openings -0.5% 175.0% 350.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lost?window=24h) | 6 | 82.31% ±267.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lost?window=7d) | 190 | 126.80% ±47.5 | +1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lost) | 278 | 107.84% ±39.3 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lost?window=all) | 278 | 107.84% ±39.3 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 278 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $8,972 17,944 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $648 1,295 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $540 1,079 coins | 3.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $405 809 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $308 616 coins | 21.3% | 6 | 3.3 | 1.80× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $245 491 coins | 28.2% | 4 | 5.6 | 0.72× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $83.53 167 coins | 12.0% | 13 | 7.0 | 1.87× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $78.29 157 coins | 11.3% | 8 | 7.0 | 1.15× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $65.61 131 coins | 9.4% | 5 | 7.0 | 0.72× | | [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 20.0% | $4.88 9.75 coins | 5.6% | 51 | 55.6 | 0.92× | | [M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.73 3.46 coins | 2.0% | 62 | 55.6 | 1.12× | | [Nova \| Wild Six (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wild-six-field-tested) | 49.0% | $0.17 0.35 coins | 0.5% | 128 | 136.2 | 0.94× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $19.31 38.62 coins $540 1,079 coins 27.95x 2026-11-09 22:55 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=lost) [Nova | Wild Six (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wild-six-field-tested) Hidden $19.31 38.62 coins $0.17 0.35 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC [M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $19.31 38.62 coins $1.73 3.46 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC [Nova | Wild Six (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wild-six-field-tested) Hidden $19.31 38.62 coins $0.17 0.35 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 19:52 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) Hidden $19.31 38.62 coins $4.88 9.75 coins 0.25x 2026-11-10 19:52 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) Hidden $19.31 38.62 coins $4.88 9.75 coins 0.25x 2026-11-10 19:52 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) [pooop](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/pooop) $19.31 38.62 coins $83.53 167 coins 4.33x 2026-11-10 19:52 UTC [★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-factory-new) Hidden $19.31 38.62 coins $245 491 coins 12.71x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [Nova | Wild Six (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wild-six-field-tested) Hidden $19.31 38.62 coins $0.17 0.35 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) Hidden $19.31 38.62 coins $83.53 167 coins 4.33x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [Nova | Wild Six (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wild-six-field-tested) Hidden $19.31 38.62 coins $0.17 0.35 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $19.31 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.1% covert 1.4% Extraordinary 2.0% extraordinary 2.5% Covert 2.5% Immortal 2.5% classified 20.0% restricted 69.0% best hit $540 (27.95x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt