--- title: "Lovable case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Lovable ($3.85) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 14 items with odds, observed 96.33% over 342 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lovable rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Lovable](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lovable) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Lovable A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lovable?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lovable?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lovable) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lovable?window=all) Price · $3.85 · 7.7 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $3.46 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.33% · 342 openings, odds method Variance · 6.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 64 openings · below min 7 days · 91.86% ±28.81 278 openings 30 days · 96.33% ±25.97 342 openings since tracking started · 96.33% ±25.97 342 openings 8.5% 69.0% 129.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lovable?window=24h) | 64 | 68.95% ±60.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lovable?window=7d) | 278 | 91.86% ±28.8 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lovable) | 342 | 96.33% ±26.0 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lovable?window=all) | 342 | 96.33% ±26.0 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 342 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $60.88 122 coins | 17.6% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.46× | | [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Tranquility (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-tranquility-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $55.91 112 coins | 16.1% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.17× | | [Souvenir Nova \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $51.43 103 coins | 14.8% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× | | [P2000 \| Obsidian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $5.88 11.75 coins | 8.5% | 17 | 17.1 | 0.99× | | [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $5.13 10.26 coins | 7.4% | 15 | 17.1 | 0.88× | | [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $5.04 10.08 coins | 7.3% | 19 | 17.1 | 1.11× | | [FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $4.27 8.53 coins | 8.6% | 33 | 23.9 | 1.38× | | [P2000 \| Obsidian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-field-tested) | 11.0% | $1.27 2.53 coins | 4.0% | 36 | 37.6 | 0.96× | | [SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) | 11.0% | $1.16 2.31 coins | 3.7% | 41 | 37.6 | 1.09× | | [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 11.0% | $1.04 2.08 coins | 3.3% | 29 | 37.6 | 0.77× | | [Galil AR \| Signal (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-factory-new) | 10.5% | $0.72 1.44 coins | 2.2% | 37 | 35.9 | 1.03× | | [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-field-tested) | 10.5% | $0.72 1.44 coins | 2.2% | 30 | 35.9 | 0.84× | | [P90 \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-factory-new) | 10.5% | $0.71 1.43 coins | 2.2% | 42 | 35.9 | 1.17× | | [P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) | 10.5% | $0.71 1.43 coins | 2.2% | 32 | 35.9 | 0.89× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=lovable) [M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $3.85 7.7 coins $1.04 2.08 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 01:25 UTC [P2000 | Obsidian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-field-tested) Hidden $3.85 7.7 coins $1.27 2.53 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 01:25 UTC [P2000 | Obsidian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-field-tested) Hidden $3.85 7.7 coins $1.27 2.53 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 01:25 UTC [M249 | Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-field-tested) Hidden $3.85 7.7 coins $0.72 1.44 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 01:25 UTC [P2000 | Obsidian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-field-tested) Hidden $3.85 7.7 coins $1.27 2.53 coins 0.33x 2026-11-10 23:58 UTC [M249 | Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-field-tested) Hidden $3.85 7.7 coins $0.72 1.44 coins 0.19x 2026-11-10 23:58 UTC [SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) Hidden $3.85 7.7 coins $1.16 2.31 coins 0.30x 2026-11-10 23:58 UTC [Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-factory-new) Hidden $3.85 7.7 coins $5.04 10.08 coins 1.31x 2026-11-10 23:58 UTC [P90 | Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-factory-new) Hidden $3.85 7.7 coins $0.71 1.43 coins 0.19x 2026-11-10 23:58 UTC [M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) [Cupcake](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Cupcake) $3.85 7.7 coins $1.04 2.08 coins 0.27x 2026-11-10 23:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.85 | 90.00% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 45.0% #d32ee6 1.0% other 1.0% classified 10.0% #8847ff 11.0% Mythical 11.0% violet 10.5% #4b69ff 10.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt