--- title: "Lucid 5% case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lucid 5% ($12.66) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 106.99% over 254 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucid-5 rendered: 2026-11-11T22:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Lucid 5%](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucid-5) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Lucid 5% A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 4 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucid-5?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucid-5?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucid-5) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucid-5?window=all) Price · $12.66 · 25.31 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 106.99% · 254 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 248 openings · below min 7 days · 248 openings · below min 30 days · 254 openings · below min since tracking started · 254 openings · below min 44.0% 109.0% 174.0% **Small sample.** 254 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucid-5?window=24h) | 248 | 109.58% ±64.0 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucid-5?window=7d) | 248 | 109.58% ±64.0 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucid-5) | 254 | 106.99% ±62.5 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucid-5?window=all) | 254 | 106.99% ±62.5 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Chicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) Hidden $12.66 25.31 coins $525 1,051 coins 41.52x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) Hidden $12.66 25.31 coins $525 1,051 coins 41.52x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=lucid-5) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $12.66 25.31 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $12.66 25.31 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $12.66 25.31 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $12.66 25.31 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $12.66 25.31 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $12.66 25.31 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $12.66 25.31 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [ludas00](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/ludas00) $12.66 25.31 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.66 25.31 coins $256 512 coins 20.24x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $12.66 25.31 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $525 (41.52x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 107.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $106.99 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt