---
title: "Lucid Dream case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Lucid Dream ($2.66) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.93% from 16 items with odds, observed 80.15% over 4,368 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucid-dream
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Lucid Dream](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucid-dream)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Lucid Dream

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucid-dream?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucid-dream?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucid-dream) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucid-dream?window=all)

Price · $2.66 · 5.31 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.93% · EV $2.39 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.15% · 4,368 openings, odds method

Variance · 61.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 74.19% ±106.25 209 openings

7 days · 80.49% ±27.34 3,157 openings

30 days · 80.15% ±23.24 4,368 openings

since tracking started · 80.15% ±23.24 4,368 openings

-0.5% 90.3% 181.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucid-dream?window=24h) | 209 | 74.19% ±106.2 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucid-dream?window=7d) | 3,157 | 80.49% ±27.3 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucid-dream) | 4,368 | 80.15% ±23.2 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucid-dream?window=all) | 4,368 | 80.15% ±23.2 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,368 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) | 1 in 50,000 | $2,877 5,754 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,701 3,402 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,638 3,277 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,524 3,048 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-katowice-2014) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,316 2,632 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,170 2,340 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,071 2,142 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,044 2,089 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-factory-new) | 12.0% | $5.77 11.53 coins | 29.0% | 542 | 524.2 | 1.03× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) | 12.0% | $4.59 9.17 coins | 23.0% | 513 | 524.2 | 0.98× |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-factory-new) | 12.0% | $3.17 6.33 coins | 15.9% | 490 | 524.2 | 0.93× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $1.37 2.74 coins | 6.9% | 535 | 524.2 | 1.02× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Phoenix Marker (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-phoenix-marker-field-tested) | 12.0% | $1.31 2.62 coins | 6.6% | 532 | 524.2 | 1.01× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-field-tested) | 12.0% | $1.08 2.16 coins | 5.4% | 506 | 524.2 | 0.97× |
| [AUG \| Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) | 13.0% | $0.51 1.02 coins | 2.8% | 558 | 567.8 | 0.98× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 692 | 654.5 | 1.06× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=lucid-dream)

[PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-field-tested) Hidden $2.66 5.31 coins $1.08 2.16 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 20:04 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) Hidden $2.66 5.31 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:04 UTC

[P2000 | Handgun (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-factory-new) Hidden $2.66 5.31 coins $3.17 6.33 coins 1.19x 2026-11-11 20:04 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) Hidden $2.66 5.31 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:04 UTC

[AUG | Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) Hidden $2.66 5.31 coins $0.51 1.02 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 20:04 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) Hidden $2.66 5.31 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:04 UTC

[Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) Hidden $2.66 5.31 coins $4.59 9.17 coins 1.73x 2026-11-11 20:04 UTC

[AUG | Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) [Ler1](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Ler1) $2.66 5.31 coins $0.51 1.02 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 20:04 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-field-tested) Hidden $2.66 5.31 coins $1.08 2.16 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 19:43 UTC

[AUG | Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) Hidden $2.66 5.31 coins $0.51 1.02 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 19:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.66 | 89.93% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 12.0% 3 12.0% high 0.0% covert 0.0% classified 12.0% Covert 0.0% epic 0.0% gold 0.0% restricted 36.0% mil spec 13.0% consumer 15.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.93 on average: an expected loss of $10.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt