--- title: "Lucky AWP case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lucky AWP ($0.80) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.64% from 8 items with odds, observed 84.62% over 22.9K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-awp rendered: 2026-11-11T21:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Lucky AWP](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-awp) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Lucky AWP A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-awp?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-awp?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-awp) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-awp?window=all) Price · $0.80 · 1.6 coins Advertised RTP · 89.64% · EV $0.72 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.62% · 22.9K openings, odds method Variance · 145.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 278 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 63.78% ±53.76 1,930 openings 7 days · 83.33% ±17.73 17.8K openings 30 days · 84.62% ±15.61 22.9K openings since tracking started · 84.62% ±15.61 22.9K openings 9.5% 63.7% 118.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-awp?window=24h) | 1,930 | 63.78% ±53.8 | −0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-awp?window=7d) | 17.8K | 83.33% ±17.7 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-awp) | 22.9K | 84.62% ±15.6 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-awp?window=all) | 22.9K | 84.62% ±15.6 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22.9K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $639 1,278 coins | 8.9% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.87× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $290 580 coins | 20.2% | 10 | 11.4 | 0.87× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $82.16 164 coins | 11.5% | 21 | 22.9 | 0.92× | | [AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $41.20 82.39 coins | 11.5% | 42 | 45.8 | 0.92× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $7.71 15.42 coins | 5.4% | 115 | 114.5 | 1.00× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $1.33 2.65 coins | 1.8% | 219 | 228.9 | 0.96× | | [SCAR-20 \| Green Marine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-factory-new) | 48.0% | $0.30 0.61 coins | 20.4% | 10,984 | 10988.2 | 1.00× | | [SCAR-20 \| Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) | 50.1% | $0.29 0.58 coins | 20.3% | 11,499 | 11478.0 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) [Goldenhands](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Goldenhands) $0.80 1.6 coins $639 1,278 coins 798.6x 2026-11-10 15:52 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) [Goldenhands](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Goldenhands) $0.80 1.6 coins $639 1,278 coins 798.6x 2026-11-10 05:15 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Graphite (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-graphite-factory-new) Hidden $0.80 1.6 coins $290 580 coins 362.6x 2026-11-10 15:11 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Graphite (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-graphite-factory-new) [banana](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/banana) $0.80 1.6 coins $290 580 coins 362.6x 2026-11-08 10:37 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Graphite (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-graphite-factory-new) [naterp93](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/naterp93) $0.80 1.6 coins $290 580 coins 362.6x 2026-11-07 21:29 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Graphite (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-graphite-factory-new) Hidden $0.80 1.6 coins $290 580 coins 362.6x 2026-11-06 02:05 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Graphite (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-graphite-factory-new) Hidden $0.80 1.6 coins $290 580 coins 362.6x 2026-11-06 02:05 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Graphite (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-graphite-factory-new) Hidden $0.80 1.6 coins $290 580 coins 362.6x 2026-11-05 13:57 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Graphite (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-graphite-factory-new) Hidden $0.80 1.6 coins $290 580 coins 362.6x 2026-11-05 03:14 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Graphite (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-graphite-factory-new) Hidden $0.80 1.6 coins $290 580 coins 362.6x 2026-11-04 18:20 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=lucky-awp) [SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-factory-new) Hidden $0.80 1.6 coins $0.30 0.61 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC [SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) Hidden $0.80 1.6 coins $0.29 0.58 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC [SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) Hidden $0.80 1.6 coins $0.29 0.58 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC [SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-factory-new) Hidden $0.80 1.6 coins $0.30 0.61 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC [SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) Hidden $0.80 1.6 coins $0.29 0.58 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC [SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-factory-new) Hidden $0.80 1.6 coins $0.30 0.61 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC [SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) Hidden $0.80 1.6 coins $0.29 0.58 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC [SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) Hidden $0.80 1.6 coins $0.29 0.58 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC [SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) Hidden $0.80 1.6 coins $0.29 0.58 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC [SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) Hidden $0.80 1.6 coins $0.29 0.58 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.80 | 89.64% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% Classified 0.1% classified 0.3% restricted 1.5% Rare 98.1% best hit $639 (798.6x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.64 on average: an expected loss of $10.36 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt