--- title: "Lucky Duck case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lucky Duck ($514.79) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 14 items with odds, observed 53.63% over 52 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-duck rendered: 2026-11-11T20:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Lucky Duck](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-duck) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Lucky Duck A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-duck?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-duck?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-duck) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-duck?window=all) Price · $514.79 · 1,030 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $463.31 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 53.63% · 52 openings, odds method Variance · 5.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 52 openings · below min 30 days · 52 openings · below min since tracking started · 52 openings · below min -0.5% 58.0% 116.5% **Small sample.** 52 openings and 6.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-duck?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-duck?window=7d) | 52 | 53.63% ±62.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-duck) | 52 | 53.63% ±62.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-duck?window=all) | 52 | 53.63% ±62.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 52 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $72.4K 144,822 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 4,000 | $26.7K 53,347 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $18.7K 37,392 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $15.1K 30,112 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $8,675 17,351 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 500 | $5,893 11,786 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Charm \| Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) | 1 in 333 | $5,000 10,000 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 200 | $3,592 7,183 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Sticker \| suNny (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sunny-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 100 | $2,528 5,057 coins | 5.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,979 3,958 coins | 8.5% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1,501 3,002 coins | 9.7% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× | | [Sticker \| mir (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mir-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 22 | $1,250 2,500 coins | 12.1% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 22 | $1,035 2,071 coins | 10.1% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× | | [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) | 83.8% | $201 402 coins | 36.3% | 49 | 43.6 | 1.12× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $515 1,030 coins $1,979 3,958 coins 3.84x 2026-11-07 14:17 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) Hidden $515 1,030 coins $1,501 3,002 coins 2.92x 2026-11-07 23:24 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $515 1,030 coins $1,035 2,071 coins 2.01x 2026-11-07 14:16 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=lucky-duck) [Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) Hidden $515 1,030 coins $201 402 coins 0.39x 2026-11-07 23:24 UTC [Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) Hidden $515 1,030 coins $201 402 coins 0.39x 2026-11-07 23:24 UTC [Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) Hidden $515 1,030 coins $201 402 coins 0.39x 2026-11-07 23:24 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) Hidden $515 1,030 coins $1,501 3,002 coins 2.92x 2026-11-07 23:24 UTC [Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) Hidden $515 1,030 coins $201 402 coins 0.39x 2026-11-07 23:24 UTC [Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) Hidden $515 1,030 coins $201 402 coins 0.39x 2026-11-07 23:24 UTC [Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) Hidden $515 1,030 coins $201 402 coins 0.39x 2026-11-07 23:24 UTC [Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) [sperma](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/sperma) $515 1,030 coins $201 402 coins 0.39x 2026-11-07 23:24 UTC [Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) Hidden $515 1,030 coins $201 402 coins 0.39x 2026-11-07 23:23 UTC [Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) Hidden $515 1,030 coins $201 402 coins 0.39x 2026-11-07 23:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $515 | 90.00% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% covert 5.6% extraordinary 4.6% Knives 0.2% uncommon 0.3% Extraordinary 1.0% #EB4B4B 4.5% pink 83.8% best hit $1,979 (3.84x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt