--- title: "Lucky Surge case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lucky Surge ($8.00) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.03% from 16 items with odds, observed 81.50% over 147 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-surge rendered: 2026-11-11T21:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Lucky Surge](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-surge) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Lucky Surge A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-surge?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-surge?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-surge) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-surge?window=all) Price · $8.00 · 16 coins Advertised RTP · 90.03% · EV $7.20 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.50% · 147 openings, odds method Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 10 openings · below min 7 days · 82.10% ±30.89 119 openings 30 days · 81.50% ±27.79 147 openings since tracking started · 81.50% ±27.79 147 openings -0.5% 65.5% 131.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-surge?window=24h) | 10 | 24.51% ±106.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-surge?window=7d) | 119 | 82.10% ±30.9 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-surge) | 147 | 81.50% ±27.8 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-surge?window=all) | 147 | 81.50% ±27.8 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 153 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $75.53 151 coins | 10.5% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $71.52 143 coins | 9.9% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× | | [P2000 \| Chainmail (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-chainmail-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $69.94 140 coins | 9.7% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.31× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $33.19 66.38 coins | 9.2% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.63× | | [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $29.07 58.14 coins | 12.1% | 2 | 4.6 | 0.44× | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $19.94 39.87 coins | 8.3% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.09× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $18.99 37.97 coins | 7.9% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.87× | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $14.24 28.47 coins | 7.9% | 7 | 6.1 | 1.14× | | [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $5.19 10.38 coins | 5.8% | 12 | 12.2 | 0.98× | | [M4A4 \| Griffin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $3.54 7.07 coins | 3.9% | 12 | 12.2 | 0.98× | | [MAG-7 \| Seabird (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-seabird-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $3.20 6.39 coins | 4.0% | 8 | 13.8 | 0.58× | | [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $2.89 5.77 coins | 3.6% | 13 | 13.8 | 0.94× | | [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $2.72 5.44 coins | 3.4% | 4 | 13.8 | 0.29× | | [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $1.14 2.27 coins | 1.4% | 23 | 13.8 | 1.67× | | [Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $0.58 1.17 coins | 1.2% | 25 | 22.9 | 1.09× | | [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $0.53 1.06 coins | 1.1% | 29 | 22.9 | 1.26× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=lucky-surge) [M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-factory-new) Hidden $8.00 16 coins $3.54 7.07 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $8.00 16 coins $1.14 2.27 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $8.00 16 coins $1.14 2.27 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC [M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-field-tested) Hidden $8.00 16 coins $2.89 5.77 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC [MAG-7 | Seabird (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-seabird-factory-new) [foulito](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/foulito) $8.00 16 coins $3.20 6.39 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 00:45 UTC [Nova | Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.00 16 coins $0.58 1.17 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 00:45 UTC [M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-field-tested) Hidden $8.00 16 coins $2.89 5.77 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 00:45 UTC [MAG-7 | Seabird (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-seabird-factory-new) Hidden $8.00 16 coins $3.20 6.39 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 00:45 UTC [AWP | Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.00 16 coins $0.53 1.06 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 00:45 UTC [AWP | Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.00 16 coins $0.53 1.06 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 00:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.00 | 90.03% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 9.0% #ffd700 1.0% mil spec 1.0% covert 9.0% industrial 6.0% restricted 23.0% consumer 9.0% Ancient 9.0% #d32ee6 9.0% Industrial Grade 9.0% #8847ff 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.03 on average: an expected loss of $9.97 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt