--- title: "Lucky Winner case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lucky Winner ($301.86) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 15 items with odds, observed 80.25% over 3,140 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-winner rendered: 2026-11-11T19:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Lucky Winner](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-winner) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Lucky Winner A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-winner?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-winner?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-winner) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-winner?window=all) Price · $301.86 · 604 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $271.67 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.25% · 3,140 openings, odds method Variance · 77.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 220 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 392 openings · below min 7 days · 76.12% ±32.57 2,812 openings 30 days · 80.25% ±30.82 3,140 openings since tracking started · 80.25% ±30.82 3,140 openings -0.5% 65.3% 131.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-winner?window=24h) | 392 | 42.93% ±87.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-winner?window=7d) | 2,812 | 76.12% ±32.6 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-winner) | 3,140 | 80.25% ±30.8 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/lucky-winner?window=all) | 3,140 | 80.25% ±30.8 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,140 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $112K 223,312 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 4,000 | $72.4K 144,822 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 2,500 | $52.4K 104,780 coins | 7.7% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.80× | | [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,333 | $31.6K 63,128 coins | 8.7% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.27× | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 800 | $25.5K 51,019 coins | 11.7% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.53× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 571 | $18.7K 37,392 coins | 12.0% | 3 | 5.5 | 0.55× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $15.1K 30,112 coins | 11.1% | 6 | 6.3 | 0.96× | | [Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 290 | $6,328 12,655 coins | 8.0% | 12 | 10.8 | 1.11× | | [Charm \| Baby Karat CT charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-ct) | 1 in 200 | $3,848 7,697 coins | 7.1% | 11 | 15.7 | 0.70× | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,757 3,515 coins | 6.5% | 44 | 31.4 | 1.40× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-stained-field-tested) | 10.0% | $101 201 coins | 3.7% | 296 | 314.0 | 0.94× | | [MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) | 10.0% | $97.15 194 coins | 3.6% | 288 | 314.0 | 0.92× | | [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 20.0% | $32.01 64.02 coins | 2.4% | 644 | 628.0 | 1.03× | | [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 20.0% | $23.04 46.07 coins | 1.7% | 601 | 628.0 | 0.96× | | [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 37.5% | $21.41 42.82 coins | 3.0% | 1,225 | 1177.5 | 1.04× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $302 604 coins $52.4K 104,780 coins 173.6x 2026-11-04 17:06 UTC [Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $302 604 coins $31.6K 63,128 coins 104.6x 2026-11-09 02:43 UTC [Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $302 604 coins $31.6K 63,128 coins 104.6x 2026-11-08 21:17 UTC [Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $302 604 coins $31.6K 63,128 coins 104.6x 2026-11-07 14:16 UTC [Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $302 604 coins $25.5K 51,019 coins 84.51x 2026-11-10 19:18 UTC [Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $302 604 coins $25.5K 51,019 coins 84.51x 2026-11-08 21:19 UTC [Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $302 604 coins $25.5K 51,019 coins 84.51x 2026-11-07 20:01 UTC [Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $302 604 coins $25.5K 51,019 coins 84.51x 2026-11-07 19:48 UTC [Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $302 604 coins $25.5K 51,019 coins 84.51x 2026-11-06 08:23 UTC [Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $302 604 coins $25.5K 51,019 coins 84.51x 2026-11-05 12:20 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=lucky-winner) [M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) Hidden $302 604 coins $21.41 42.82 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $302 604 coins $1,757 3,515 coins 5.82x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) Hidden $302 604 coins $21.41 42.82 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) [eliboti](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/eliboti) $302 604 coins $21.41 42.82 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) Hidden $302 604 coins $21.41 42.82 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC [Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $302 604 coins $6,328 12,655 coins 20.96x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) Hidden $302 604 coins $21.41 42.82 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) [eliboti](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/eliboti) $302 604 coins $21.41 42.82 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) Hidden $302 604 coins $21.41 42.82 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 17:22 UTC [Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $302 604 coins $6,328 12,655 coins 20.96x 2026-11-11 17:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $302 | 90.00% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% legendary 1.0% remarkable 0.6% extraordinary 0.4% rare 0.5% covert knife 10.0% restricted 30.0% classified 57.5% best hit $52.4K (173.6x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt