--- title: "M4 5% case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "M4 5% ($8.52) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 103.46% over 501 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/m4-5 rendered: 2026-11-13T03:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [M4 5%](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/m4-5) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · M4 5% A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/m4-5?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/m4-5?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/m4-5) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/m4-5?window=all) Price · $8.52 · 17.03 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 103.46% · 501 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 7 days · 485 openings · below min 30 days · 501 openings · below min since tracking started · 501 openings · below min 60.0% 105.7% 151.5% **Small sample.** 501 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/m4-5?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/m4-5?window=7d) | 485 | 106.76% ±44.1 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/m4-5) | 501 | 103.46% ±42.7 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/m4-5?window=all) | 501 | 103.46% ±42.7 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Chicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) Hidden $8.52 17.03 coins $455 910 coins 53.41x 2026-11-10 23:17 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) Hidden $8.52 17.03 coins $455 910 coins 53.41x 2026-11-08 19:15 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=m4-5) [M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) Hidden $8.52 17.03 coins $0.14 0.27 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 23:21 UTC [M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-factory-new) Hidden $8.52 17.03 coins $95.96 192 coins 11.27x 2026-11-10 23:21 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) Hidden $8.52 17.03 coins $0.14 0.27 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 23:21 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) Hidden $8.52 17.03 coins $0.14 0.27 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 23:21 UTC [M4A1-S | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $8.52 17.03 coins $0.43 0.87 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 23:21 UTC [M4A1-S | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-field-tested) [Till0999](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Till0999) $8.52 17.03 coins $0.43 0.87 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 23:21 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) Hidden $8.52 17.03 coins $0.14 0.27 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 23:21 UTC [M4A1-S | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $8.52 17.03 coins $0.43 0.87 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 23:21 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) Hidden $8.52 17.03 coins $0.14 0.27 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 23:21 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) Hidden $8.52 17.03 coins $0.14 0.27 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 23:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $455 (53.41x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 103.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $103.46 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt