---
title: "M4A1 Shop case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "M4A1 Shop ($66.88) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 94.23% over 110 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/m4a1-shop
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:04Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [M4A1 Shop](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/m4a1-shop)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · M4A1 Shop

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/m4a1-shop?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/m4a1-shop?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/m4a1-shop) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/m4a1-shop?window=all)

Price · $66.88 · 134 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $60.18 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.23% · 110 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 95.36% ±52.14 102 openings

30 days · 94.23% ±50.21 110 openings

since tracking started · 94.23% ±50.21 110 openings

42.5% 95.3% 148.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/m4a1-shop?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/m4a1-shop?window=7d) | 102 | 95.36% ±52.1 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/m4a1-shop) | 110 | 94.23% ±50.2 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/m4a1-shop?window=all) | 110 | 94.23% ±50.2 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 110 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $6,389 12,778 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,501 3,002 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,433 2,866 coins | 23.8% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $715 1,429 coins | 11.9% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $595 1,191 coins | 9.9% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.82× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $215 431 coins | 10.7% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.52× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $143 286 coins | 9.5% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.14× |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $132 263 coins | 8.7% | 6 | 4.4 | 1.36× |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $75.07 150 coins | 8.7% | 8 | 7.7 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $50.58 101 coins | 5.9% | 12 | 7.7 | 1.56× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 12.0% | $19.42 38.83 coins | 3.9% | 13 | 13.2 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 12.0% | $15.38 30.75 coins | 3.1% | 8 | 13.2 | 0.61× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 12.0% | $6.00 12 coins | 1.2% | 15 | 13.2 | 1.14× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-factory-new) | 12.0% | $4.01 8.01 coins | 0.8% | 12 | 13.2 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.39 0.77 coins | 0.1% | 5 | 13.2 | 0.38× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 11.9% | $0.28 0.55 coins | 0.1% | 18 | 13.1 | 1.37× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) Hidden $66.88 134 coins $1,433 2,866 coins 21.43x 2026-11-08 23:06 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $66.88 134 coins $595 1,191 coins 8.90x 2026-11-08 23:17 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $66.88 134 coins $595 1,191 coins 8.90x 2026-11-08 23:10 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=m4a1-shop)

[M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) Hidden $66.88 134 coins $15.38 30.75 coins 0.23x 2026-11-08 23:17 UTC

[Souvenir M4A1-S | Nitro (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) Hidden $66.88 134 coins $75.07 150 coins 1.12x 2026-11-08 23:17 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) Hidden $66.88 134 coins $0.28 0.55 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 23:17 UTC

[M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) Hidden $66.88 134 coins $50.58 101 coins 0.76x 2026-11-08 23:17 UTC

[M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) Hidden $66.88 134 coins $19.42 38.83 coins 0.29x 2026-11-08 23:17 UTC

[M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) [BriskFang8264](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BriskFang8264) $66.88 134 coins $19.42 38.83 coins 0.29x 2026-11-08 23:17 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) Hidden $66.88 134 coins $0.28 0.55 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 23:16 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) Hidden $66.88 134 coins $6.00 12 coins 0.09x 2026-11-08 23:16 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $66.88 134 coins $595 1,191 coins 8.90x 2026-11-08 23:16 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) Hidden $66.88 134 coins $0.28 0.55 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 23:16 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $66.88 | 90.00% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 27.1% classified 26.0% other 4.0% restricted 19.0% Mythical 23.9% best hit $1,433 (21.43x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt