--- title: "Madness case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Madness ($88.58) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 101.57% over 2,711 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/madness rendered: 2026-11-11T15:15Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Madness](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/madness) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Madness A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/madness?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/madness?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/madness) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/madness?window=all) Price · $88.58 · 177 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $79.71 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 101.57% · 2,711 openings, odds method Variance · 20.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 71 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 77.44% ±37.27 556 openings 30 days · 101.57% ±16.88 2,711 openings since tracking started · 101.57% ±16.88 2,711 openings 39.5% 79.3% 119.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/madness?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/madness?window=7d) | 556 | 77.44% ±37.3 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/madness) | 2,711 | 101.57% ±16.9 | +1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/madness?window=all) | 2,711 | 101.57% ±16.9 | +1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,711 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| mousesports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mousesports-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 500 | $3,498 6,995 coins | 8.8% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.11× | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) | 1 in 500 | $3,097 6,194 coins | 7.8% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.92× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 500 | $2,993 5,986 coins | 7.5% | 7 | 5.4 | 1.29× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 500 | $2,935 5,870 coins | 7.4% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.11× | | [Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) | 1 in 500 | $2,877 5,754 coins | 7.2% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.11× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 500 | $2,844 5,688 coins | 7.1% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.92× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 500 | $2,813 5,625 coins | 7.1% | 10 | 5.4 | 1.84× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 500 | $2,643 5,286 coins | 6.6% | 7 | 5.4 | 1.29× | | [Sticker \| suNny (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sunny-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 500 | $2,528 5,057 coins | 6.3% | 4 | 5.4 | 0.74× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $631 1,262 coins | 7.9% | 29 | 27.1 | 1.07× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $451 903 coins | 5.7% | 27 | 27.1 | 1.00× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 67 | $354 708 coins | 6.7% | 63 | 40.7 | 1.55× | | [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $280 560 coins | 6.0% | 36 | 46.1 | 0.78× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 50 | $167 335 coins | 4.2% | 53 | 54.2 | 0.98× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $50.22 100 coins | 3.8% | 177 | 162.7 | 1.09× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 85.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 2,270 | 2304.3 | 0.99× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | mousesports (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mousesports-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $88.58 177 coins $3,498 6,995 coins 39.49x 2026-11-06 15:15 UTC [Sticker | mousesports (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mousesports-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $88.58 177 coins $3,498 6,995 coins 39.49x 2026-11-04 18:41 UTC [Sticker | mousesports (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mousesports-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $88.58 177 coins $3,498 6,995 coins 39.49x 2026-11-04 00:46 UTC [Sticker | mousesports (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mousesports-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $88.58 177 coins $3,498 6,995 coins 39.49x 2026-11-04 00:43 UTC [Sticker | mousesports (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mousesports-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $88.58 177 coins $3,498 6,995 coins 39.49x 2026-11-03 01:01 UTC [Sticker | mousesports (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mousesports-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $88.58 177 coins $3,498 6,995 coins 39.49x 2026-11-03 00:35 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $88.58 177 coins $3,097 6,194 coins 34.96x 2026-11-04 00:21 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $88.58 177 coins $3,097 6,194 coins 34.96x 2026-11-03 21:51 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $88.58 177 coins $3,097 6,194 coins 34.96x 2026-11-03 01:11 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $88.58 177 coins $3,097 6,194 coins 34.96x 2026-11-03 00:23 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=madness) [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $88.58 177 coins $451 903 coins 5.10x 2026-11-10 03:52 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $88.58 177 coins $354 708 coins 4.00x 2026-11-10 03:52 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $88.58 177 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 03:52 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $88.58 177 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 03:52 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $88.58 177 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 03:52 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $88.58 177 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 03:52 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $88.58 177 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 03:52 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $88.58 177 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 03:52 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $88.58 177 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 03:50 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $88.58 177 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 03:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $88.58 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.2% high 0.4% covert 6.5% Extraordinary 0.2% covert knife 1.7% extraordinary 6.0% #4b69ff 85.0% best hit $3,498 (39.49x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt