--- title: "Marked Bills case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Marked Bills ($76.22) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 128.89% over 166 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/marked-bills rendered: 2026-11-11T17:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Marked Bills](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/marked-bills) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Marked Bills A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/marked-bills?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/marked-bills?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/marked-bills) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/marked-bills?window=all) Price · $76.22 · 152 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $68.59 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 128.89% · 166 openings, odds method Variance · 7.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 32 openings · below min 7 days · 128.89% ±42.62 166 openings 30 days · 128.89% ±42.62 166 openings since tracking started · 128.89% ±42.62 166 openings 8.5% 106.3% 204.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/marked-bills?window=24h) | 32 | 106.46% ±97.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/marked-bills?window=7d) | 166 | 128.89% ±42.6 | +1.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/marked-bills) | 166 | 128.89% ±42.6 | +1.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/marked-bills?window=all) | 166 | 128.89% ±42.6 | +1.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 166 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 200 | $2,338 4,676 coins | 17.0% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $1,012 2,023 coins | 14.7% | 4 | 1.7 | 2.41× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 33 | $506 1,012 coins | 22.1% | 6 | 5.0 | 1.20× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $233 466 coins | 17.0% | 7 | 8.3 | 0.84× | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $189 379 coins | 13.8% | 6 | 8.3 | 0.72× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $75.09 150 coins | 8.8% | 14 | 13.3 | 1.05× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $40.72 81.43 coins | 1.8% | 6 | 5.0 | 1.20× | | [SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $23.26 46.51 coins | 1.7% | 9 | 8.3 | 1.08× | | [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $12.01 24.01 coins | 1.4% | 11 | 13.3 | 0.83× | | [Nova \| Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $10.01 20.02 coins | 1.2% | 10 | 13.3 | 0.75× | | [MP9 \| Green Plaid (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-green-plaid-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $2.21 4.42 coins | 0.3% | 9 | 14.9 | 0.60× | | [SCAR-20 \| Green Marine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-factory-new) | 44.5% | $0.30 0.61 coins | 0.2% | 82 | 73.9 | 1.11× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $76.22 152 coins $2,338 4,676 coins 30.67x 2026-11-04 22:00 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $76.22 152 coins $2,338 4,676 coins 30.67x 2026-11-04 21:52 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $76.22 152 coins $1,012 2,023 coins 13.27x 2026-11-07 06:46 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $76.22 152 coins $1,012 2,023 coins 13.27x 2026-11-04 22:05 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $76.22 152 coins $1,012 2,023 coins 13.27x 2026-11-04 22:05 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $76.22 152 coins $1,012 2,023 coins 13.27x 2026-11-04 22:02 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $76.22 152 coins $506 1,012 coins 6.64x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $76.22 152 coins $506 1,012 coins 6.64x 2026-11-11 16:21 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $76.22 152 coins $506 1,012 coins 6.64x 2026-11-04 21:57 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $76.22 152 coins $506 1,012 coins 6.64x 2026-11-04 21:54 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=marked-bills) [SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-factory-new) Hidden $76.22 152 coins $0.30 0.61 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:24 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-factory-new) Hidden $76.22 152 coins $233 466 coins 3.06x 2026-11-11 16:24 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-factory-new) Hidden $76.22 152 coins $233 466 coins 3.06x 2026-11-11 16:24 UTC [SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-factory-new) Hidden $76.22 152 coins $0.30 0.61 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:24 UTC [SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-factory-new) Hidden $76.22 152 coins $0.30 0.61 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:24 UTC [SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-factory-new) Hidden $76.22 152 coins $0.30 0.61 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:24 UTC [P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) Hidden $76.22 152 coins $189 379 coins 2.48x 2026-11-11 16:24 UTC [SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-factory-new) [kvaki](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/kvaki) $76.22 152 coins $0.30 0.61 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:24 UTC [SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-factory-new) Hidden $76.22 152 coins $0.30 0.61 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC [Nova | Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-factory-new) Hidden $76.22 152 coins $10.01 20.02 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $76.22 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 0.5% covert 4.0% Extraordinary 5.0% classified 5.0% mil spec 16.0% gold 3.0% restricted 5.0% industrial 8.0% Consumer Grade 9.0% Rare 44.5% best hit $2,338 (30.67x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt