--- title: "Marshmallow case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Marshmallow ($1.67) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.77% from 16 items with odds, observed 90.55% over 28.1K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/marshmallow rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Marshmallow](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/marshmallow) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Marshmallow A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/marshmallow?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/marshmallow?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/marshmallow) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/marshmallow?window=all) Price · $1.67 · 3.33 coins Advertised RTP · 89.77% · EV $1.49 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.55% · 28.1K openings, odds method Variance · 29.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 74 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 94.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 101.07% ±20.43 2,751 openings 7 days · 90.44% ±7.09 22.8K openings 30 days · 90.55% ±6.40 28.1K openings since tracking started · 90.55% ±6.40 28.1K openings 80.0% 101.0% 122.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/marshmallow?window=24h) | 2,751 | 101.07% ±20.4 | +1.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/marshmallow?window=7d) | 22.8K | 90.44% ±7.09 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/marshmallow) | 28.1K | 90.55% ±6.40 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/marshmallow?window=all) | 28.1K | 90.55% ±6.40 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28.1K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Negev \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $253 506 coins | 3.4% | 2 | 5.6 | 0.36× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $252 503 coins | 3.4% | 6 | 5.6 | 1.07× | | [AWP \| Doodle Lore (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $156 312 coins | 3.1% | 5 | 8.4 | 0.59× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $155 310 coins | 3.1% | 13 | 8.4 | 1.54× | | [Souvenir P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p2000-granite-marbleized-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $122 244 coins | 4.1% | 16 | 14.0 | 1.14× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $115 230 coins | 3.8% | 21 | 14.0 | 1.50× | | [USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $54.06 108 coins | 3.6% | 27 | 28.1 | 0.96× | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $53.22 106 coins | 3.6% | 25 | 28.1 | 0.89× | | [AWP \| Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $49.51 99.01 coins | 3.3% | 30 | 28.1 | 1.07× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $47.63 95.25 coins | 4.8% | 45 | 42.1 | 1.07× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $45.21 90.41 coins | 6.0% | 54 | 56.2 | 0.96× | | [FAMAS \| Contrast Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-contrast-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $24.98 49.95 coins | 8.4% | 144 | 140.4 | 1.03× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $22.86 45.72 coins | 7.6% | 146 | 140.4 | 1.04× | | [Charm \| Lil' Whiskers charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-whiskers) | 1 in 50 | $15.58 31.15 coins | 20.8% | 559 | 561.7 | 1.00× | | [P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bengal-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $15.39 30.77 coins | 20.6% | 553 | 561.7 | 0.98× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 94.2% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.3% | 26,440 | 26443.0 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Negev | Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-anodized-navy-factory-new) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins $253 506 coins 151.9x 2026-11-06 02:30 UTC [Negev | Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-anodized-navy-factory-new) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins $253 506 coins 151.9x 2026-11-04 11:17 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins $252 503 coins 151.1x 2026-11-10 18:34 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) [daemonpk](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/daemonpk) $1.67 3.33 coins $252 503 coins 151.1x 2026-11-08 17:19 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) [chuubs](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/chuubs) $1.67 3.33 coins $252 503 coins 151.1x 2026-11-07 21:23 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins $252 503 coins 151.1x 2026-11-05 00:06 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins $252 503 coins 151.1x 2026-11-03 21:30 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins $252 503 coins 151.1x 2026-11-03 00:02 UTC [AWP | Doodle Lore (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-factory-new) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins $156 312 coins 93.79x 2026-11-08 18:52 UTC [AWP | Doodle Lore (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-factory-new) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins $156 312 coins 93.79x 2026-11-08 15:11 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=marshmallow) [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $1.67 3.33 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.67 | 89.77% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #4b69ff 2.0% covert 0.6% other 0.2% #ffd700 0.0% restricted 0.1% extraordinary 0.5% consumer 94.7% #8847ff 2.0% best hit $253 (151.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.77 on average: an expected loss of $10.23 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt