--- title: "MAX WYN case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "MAX WYN ($78.28) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 90.25% over 3,922 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/max-wyn rendered: 2026-11-11T17:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [MAX WYN](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/max-wyn) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · MAX WYN A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/max-wyn?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/max-wyn?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/max-wyn) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/max-wyn?window=all) Price · $78.28 · 157 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $70.45 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.25% · 3,922 openings, odds method Variance · 26.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 142 openings · below min 7 days · 89.12% ±17.46 3,354 openings 30 days · 90.25% ±16.15 3,922 openings since tracking started · 90.25% ±16.15 3,922 openings -0.5% 62.0% 124.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/max-wyn?window=24h) | 142 | 38.83% ±84.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/max-wyn?window=7d) | 3,354 | 89.12% ±17.5 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/max-wyn) | 3,922 | 90.25% ±16.1 | +0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/max-wyn?window=all) | 3,922 | 90.25% ±16.1 | +0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,946 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $52.4K 104,780 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $15.1K 30,112 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100,000 | $10.6K 21,246 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $9,318 18,637 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| captainMo (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-captainmo-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 100,000 | $5,513 11,026 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 118 | $3,746 7,492 coins | 45.1% | 34 | 33.5 | 1.01× | | [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 681 | $2,441 4,881 coins | 5.1% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.21× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 200 | $1,796 3,591 coins | 12.7% | 18 | 19.7 | 0.91× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $1,396 2,792 coins | 9.9% | 20 | 19.7 | 1.01× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $721 1,443 coins | 10.2% | 37 | 39.5 | 0.94× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $220 440 coins | 9.4% | 133 | 118.4 | 1.12× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $89.12 178 coins | 5.1% | 172 | 157.8 | 1.09× | | [MP7 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-field-tested) | 15.0% | $6.56 13.11 coins | 1.4% | 593 | 591.9 | 1.00× | | [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 25.0% | $1.14 2.27 coins | 0.4% | 967 | 986.5 | 0.98× | | [P90 \| Freight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.0% | 1,018 | 986.5 | 1.03× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 947 | 986.5 | 0.96× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $78.28 157 coins $3,746 7,492 coins 47.85x 2026-11-09 16:32 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $78.28 157 coins $3,746 7,492 coins 47.85x 2026-11-08 19:50 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $78.28 157 coins $3,746 7,492 coins 47.85x 2026-11-08 19:49 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $78.28 157 coins $3,746 7,492 coins 47.85x 2026-11-07 13:10 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [prudent](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/prudent) $78.28 157 coins $3,746 7,492 coins 47.85x 2026-11-06 14:12 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $78.28 157 coins $3,746 7,492 coins 47.85x 2026-11-06 09:54 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $78.28 157 coins $3,746 7,492 coins 47.85x 2026-11-06 07:00 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $78.28 157 coins $3,746 7,492 coins 47.85x 2026-11-06 06:58 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $78.28 157 coins $3,746 7,492 coins 47.85x 2026-11-05 11:35 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $78.28 157 coins $3,746 7,492 coins 47.85x 2026-11-05 11:28 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=max-wyn) [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $78.28 157 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:24 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $78.28 157 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:24 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $78.28 157 coins $1.14 2.27 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:24 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $78.28 157 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:24 UTC [P90 | Freight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-field-tested) Hidden $78.28 157 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:24 UTC [MP7 | Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-field-tested) Hidden $78.28 157 coins $6.56 13.11 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:24 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $78.28 157 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:24 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) [kvaki](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/kvaki) $78.28 157 coins $1.14 2.27 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:24 UTC [P90 | Freight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-field-tested) Hidden $78.28 157 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC [MP7 | Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-field-tested) Hidden $78.28 157 coins $6.56 13.11 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $78.28 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.0% extraordinary 3.0% covert 6.9% classified 0.1% mil spec 15.0% Industrial Grade 25.0% #4b69ff 25.0% consumer 25.0% best hit $3,746 (47.85x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt