---
title: "Mega Neon Pumper case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Mega Neon Pumper ($30.65) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 22 items with odds, observed 82.54% over 378 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mega-neon-pumper
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:15Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Mega Neon Pumper](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mega-neon-pumper)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Mega Neon Pumper

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mega-neon-pumper?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mega-neon-pumper?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mega-neon-pumper) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mega-neon-pumper?window=all)

Price · $30.65 · 61.29 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $27.58 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.54% · 378 openings, odds method

Variance · 10.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80 openings · below min

7 days · 82.54% ±32.60 378 openings

30 days · 82.54% ±32.60 378 openings

since tracking started · 82.54% ±32.60 378 openings

9.0% 80.5% 152.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mega-neon-pumper?window=24h) | 80 | 80.49% ±70.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mega-neon-pumper?window=7d) | 378 | 82.54% ±32.6 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mega-neon-pumper) | 378 | 82.54% ±32.6 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mega-neon-pumper?window=all) | 378 | 82.54% ±32.6 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 378 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,234 12,468 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,644 7,288 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,661 3,323 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,510 3,021 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,321 2,641 coins | 4.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $254 508 coins | 9.2% | 7 | 3.8 | 1.85× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $181 361 coins | 6.5% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 15.0% | $115 231 coins | 62.8% | 51 | 56.7 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $98.06 196 coins | 3.6% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $39.19 78.38 coins | 1.4% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.32× |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $35.95 71.89 coins | 1.3% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $34.03 68.06 coins | 1.2% | 7 | 3.8 | 1.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $21.58 43.15 coins | 1.5% | 7 | 7.0 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $9.27 18.53 coins | 1.0% | 11 | 11.3 | 0.97× |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.86 1.72 coins | 0.3% | 31 | 37.3 | 0.83× |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.81 1.63 coins | 0.3% | 35 | 34.0 | 1.03× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.78 1.55 coins | 0.3% | 28 | 34.0 | 0.82× |
| [Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.76 1.51 coins | 0.2% | 39 | 34.0 | 1.15× |
| [AUG \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.74 1.48 coins | 0.2% | 41 | 34.0 | 1.21× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.72 1.44 coins | 0.2% | 28 | 34.0 | 0.82× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-field-tested) | 11.1% | $0.66 1.32 coins | 0.3% | 42 | 42.1 | 1.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.53 1.05 coins | 0.2% | 37 | 30.2 | 1.22× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=mega-neon-pumper)

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) Hidden $30.65 61.29 coins $115 231 coins 3.77x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) Hidden $30.65 61.29 coins $98.06 196 coins 3.20x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) Hidden $30.65 61.29 coins $39.19 78.38 coins 1.28x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) Hidden $30.65 61.29 coins $9.27 18.53 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

[Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) Hidden $30.65 61.29 coins $0.76 1.51 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

[M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-field-tested) Hidden $30.65 61.29 coins $0.66 1.32 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) Hidden $30.65 61.29 coins $115 231 coins 3.77x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

[Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-field-tested) Hidden $30.65 61.29 coins $0.86 1.72 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) Hidden $30.65 61.29 coins $115 231 coins 3.77x 2026-11-11 07:50 UTC

[Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) Hidden $30.65 61.29 coins $0.76 1.51 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 07:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $30.65 | 90.00% | 22 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #ffd700 0.0% covert 20.9% legendary 0.1% restricted 10.0% classified 1.0% red 3.0% #8847ff 18.9% pink 9.0% blue 9.0% #4b69ff 9.0% Mil Spec Grade 11.1% #87c7ff 8.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt