--- title: "Mega Smother case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mega Smother ($640.62) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mega-smother rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Mega Smother](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mega-smother) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Mega Smother A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mega-smother?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mega-smother?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mega-smother) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mega-smother?window=all) Price · $640.62 · 1,281 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $576.55 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mega-smother?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mega-smother?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mega-smother) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mega-smother?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 20 | $2,643 5,286 coins | 22.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $2,095 4,191 coins | 18.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 20 | $1,520 3,040 coins | 13.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1,032 2,063 coins | 8.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $956 1,912 coins | 8.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 10.0% | $370 740 coins | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 10.0% | $290 579 coins | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 10.0% | $271 542 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new-2) | 22.5% | $186 371 coins | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 22.5% | $131 262 coins | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=mega-smother) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $641 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 35.0% epic 5.0% extraordinary 5.0% mil spec 32.5% restricted 22.5% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt