--- title: "Meltdown case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Meltdown ($118.75) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 96.61% over 8 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/meltdown rendered: 2026-11-11T20:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Meltdown](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/meltdown) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Meltdown A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/meltdown?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/meltdown?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/meltdown) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/meltdown?window=all) Price · $118.75 · 238 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $106.87 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.61% · 8 openings, odds method Variance · 4.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 30 days · 8 openings · below min since tracking started · 8 openings · below min -0.5% 122.5% 245.5% **Small sample.** 8 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/meltdown?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/meltdown?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/meltdown) | 8 | 96.61% ±148.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/meltdown?window=all) | 8 | 96.61% ±148.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| compLexity Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-complexity-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100 | $1,723 3,447 coins | 16.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,120 2,239 coins | 10.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,036 2,071 coins | 9.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $882 1,765 coins | 8.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $721 1,442 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $525 1,051 coins | 4.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $259 519 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $182 364 coins | 6.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $180 360 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $178 355 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $175 350 coins | 6.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $104 208 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $104 207 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $103 205 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $101 202 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-factory-new) | 65.0% | $5.04 10.08 coins | 3.1% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.35× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-factory-new) Hidden $119 238 coins $882 1,765 coins 7.43x 2026-11-03 11:59 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=meltdown) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $119 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 1.0% covert 3.0% legendary 1.0% classified 67.0% #d32ee6 4.0% sunny 4.0% Classified 7.0% restricted 7.0% Covert 3.0% covert knife 3.0% best hit $882 (7.43x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt