--- title: "Melted case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Melted ($27.69) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 76.52% over 14 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/melted rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Melted](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/melted) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Melted A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/melted?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/melted?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/melted) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/melted?window=all) Price · $27.69 · 55.37 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $24.91 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.52% · 14 openings, odds method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 23.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 14 openings · below min since tracking started · 14 openings · below min -0.5% 80.3% 161.0% **Small sample.** 14 openings and 3.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/melted?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/melted?window=7d) | 6 | 73.11% ±87.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/melted) | 14 | 76.52% ±57.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/melted?window=all) | 14 | 76.52% ±57.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $264 527 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $259 519 coins | 5.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $117 234 coins | 9.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-berries-and-cherries-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $54.12 108 coins | 6.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $52.23 104 coins | 6.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [USP-S \| Caiman (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $34.57 69.14 coins | 9.7% | 2 | 1.0 | — | | [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $33.72 67.44 coins | 9.5% | 2 | 1.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $27.98 55.96 coins | 7.9% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $26.89 53.78 coins | 7.6% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $22.39 44.77 coins | 8.1% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $18.18 36.35 coins | 6.6% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.59× | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $16.67 33.34 coins | 6.0% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.38× | | [AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $14.60 29.19 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $12.01 24.01 coins | 4.3% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× | | [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $6.73 13.46 coins | 2.4% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.0% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=melted) [M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) Hidden $27.69 55.37 coins $18.18 36.35 coins 0.66x 2026-11-10 08:26 UTC [AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) Hidden $27.69 55.37 coins $6.73 13.46 coins 0.24x 2026-11-10 08:26 UTC [Glock-18 | Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-factory-new) Hidden $27.69 55.37 coins $27.98 55.96 coins 1.01x 2026-11-10 08:26 UTC [SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-minimal-wear) Hidden $27.69 55.37 coins $33.72 67.44 coins 1.22x 2026-11-10 08:26 UTC [AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) [DemonDeeeeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/DemonDeeeeek) $27.69 55.37 coins $16.67 33.34 coins 0.60x 2026-11-10 08:26 UTC [M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) Hidden $27.69 55.37 coins $18.18 36.35 coins 0.66x 2026-11-10 08:26 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $27.69 | 89.99% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed gold 0.5% classified 42.5% covert knife 2.0% restricted 3.0% industrial 7.0% covert 18.0% mil spec 9.0% violet 9.0% consumer 9.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt