--- title: "Millionaire case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Millionaire ($1.41) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.94% from 6 items with odds, observed 0.36% over 12K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/millionaire rendered: 2026-11-11T17:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Millionaire](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/millionaire) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Millionaire A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/millionaire?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/millionaire?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/millionaire) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/millionaire?window=all) Price · $1.41 · 2.81 coins Advertised RTP · 89.94% · EV $1.26 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 0.36% · 12K openings, odds method Variance · 10701.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25,000 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 100.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 1,797 openings · below min 7 days · 11,006 openings · below min 30 days · 11,952 openings · below min since tracking started · 11,952 openings · below min -0.5% 239.5% 479.5% **Small sample.** 11,952 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/millionaire?window=24h) | 1,797 | 0.36% ±478.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/millionaire?window=7d) | 11K | 0.36% ±193.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/millionaire) | 12K | 0.36% ±185.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/millionaire?window=all) | 12K | 0.36% ±185.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 50,000 | $25.5K 51,019 coins | 40.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $15.1K 30,112 coins | 23.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $9,925 19,850 coins | 15.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $7,444 14,887 coins | 11.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Charm \| Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) | 1 in 50,000 | $5,000 10,000 coins | 7.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 100.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.4% | 11,952 | 11950.8 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=millionaire) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.81 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:23 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.81 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:23 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.81 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:23 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.81 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:23 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.81 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:23 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [chxngezs](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/chxngezs) $1.41 2.81 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:23 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.81 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:39 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.81 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:39 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.81 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:39 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $1.41 2.81 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.41 | 89.94% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% covert 0.0% uncommon 0.0% #4b69ff 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.94 on average: an expected loss of $10.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt