--- title: "Mini jackpot case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mini jackpot ($0.80) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.96% from 8 items with odds, observed 93.83% over 5,378 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mini-jackpot rendered: 2026-11-11T22:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Mini jackpot](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mini-jackpot) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Mini jackpot A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mini-jackpot?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mini-jackpot?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mini-jackpot) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mini-jackpot?window=all) Price · $0.80 · 1.59 coins Advertised RTP · 89.96% · EV $0.72 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.83% · 5,378 openings, odds method Variance · 295.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 100.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 67.29% ±137.05 604 openings 7 days · 92.61% ±50.78 4,399 openings 30 days · 93.83% ±45.93 5,378 openings since tracking started · 93.83% ±45.93 5,378 openings -0.5% 102.3% 205.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mini-jackpot?window=24h) | 604 | 67.29% ±137.0 | −0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mini-jackpot?window=7d) | 4,399 | 92.61% ±50.8 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mini-jackpot) | 5,378 | 93.83% ±45.9 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mini-jackpot?window=all) | 5,378 | 93.83% ±45.9 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,380 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $3,920 7,840 coins | 5.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $252 503 coins | 17.6% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.49× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $62.66 125 coins | 0.9% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $59.61 119 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Souvenir MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $59.10 118 coins | 0.8% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $50.58 101 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $5.22 10.44 coins | 7.3% | 52 | 53.8 | 0.97× | | [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) | 98.9% | $0.48 0.96 coins | 66.4% | 5,321 | 5321.3 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Stiletto Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $0.80 1.59 coins $252 503 coins 316.5x 2026-11-08 15:12 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $0.80 1.59 coins $252 503 coins 316.5x 2026-11-06 19:12 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) [vahidka023gma](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/vahidka023gma) $0.80 1.59 coins $252 503 coins 316.5x 2026-11-06 18:55 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $0.80 1.59 coins $252 503 coins 316.5x 2026-11-03 13:52 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $0.80 1.59 coins $62.66 125 coins 78.81x 2026-11-10 17:31 UTC [Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $0.80 1.59 coins $59.10 118 coins 74.33x 2026-11-10 18:50 UTC [Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $0.80 1.59 coins $59.10 118 coins 74.33x 2026-11-09 22:23 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=mini-jackpot) [Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) Hidden $0.80 1.59 coins $0.48 0.96 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 22:17 UTC [Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) Hidden $0.80 1.59 coins $0.48 0.96 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 22:17 UTC [Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) Hidden $0.80 1.59 coins $0.48 0.96 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 22:17 UTC [Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) Hidden $0.80 1.59 coins $0.48 0.96 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 22:17 UTC [Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) Hidden $0.80 1.59 coins $0.48 0.96 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 22:17 UTC [Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) [SteelWolf6538](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/SteelWolf6538) $0.80 1.59 coins $0.48 0.96 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 22:17 UTC [Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) Hidden $0.80 1.59 coins $0.48 0.96 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC [Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) Hidden $0.80 1.59 coins $0.48 0.96 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC [Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) Hidden $0.80 1.59 coins $0.48 0.96 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC [Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) Hidden $0.80 1.59 coins $0.48 0.96 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.80 | 89.96% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% classified 0.0% mil spec 0.0% restricted 99.9% best hit $252 (316.5x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.96 on average: an expected loss of $10.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt