--- title: "Minty Grove case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Minty Grove ($82.21) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 11 items with odds, observed 86.24% over 32 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/minty-grove rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Minty Grove](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/minty-grove) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Minty Grove A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/minty-grove?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/minty-grove?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/minty-grove) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/minty-grove?window=all) Price · $82.21 · 164 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $73.98 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.24% · 32 openings, odds method Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 32 openings · below min 7 days · 32 openings · below min 30 days · 32 openings · below min since tracking started · 32 openings · below min 25.0% 86.3% 147.5% **Small sample.** 32 openings and 2.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/minty-grove?window=24h) | 32 | 86.24% ±60.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/minty-grove?window=7d) | 32 | 86.24% ±60.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/minty-grove) | 32 | 86.24% ±60.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/minty-grove?window=all) | 32 | 86.24% ±60.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $759 1,518 coins | 10.3% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 50 | $571 1,141 coins | 15.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 40 | $466 933 coins | 15.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 36 | $405 809 coins | 15.0% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $166 332 coins | 9.0% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-hand-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $137 274 coins | 9.3% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $132 264 coins | 8.9% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× | | [Souvenir P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $127 254 coins | 8.6% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× | | [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $30.12 60.24 coins | 3.3% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.78× | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 12.5% | $26.63 53.26 coins | 4.5% | 4 | 4.0 | 1.00× | | [XM1014 \| Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-spruce-field-tested) | 52.3% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 19 | 16.7 | 1.14× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-factory-new) Hidden $82.21 164 coins $759 1,518 coins 9.23x 2026-11-11 16:13 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=minty-grove) [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $82.21 164 coins $405 809 coins 4.92x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) Hidden $82.21 164 coins $26.63 53.26 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-spruce-field-tested) Hidden $82.21 164 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [Souvenir Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-hand-cannon-field-tested) Hidden $82.21 164 coins $137 274 coins 1.67x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-spruce-field-tested) Hidden $82.21 164 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-spruce-field-tested) Hidden $82.21 164 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) Hidden $82.21 164 coins $26.63 53.26 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-spruce-field-tested) [kvaki](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/kvaki) $82.21 164 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC [Souvenir P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) Hidden $82.21 164 coins $127 254 coins 1.55x 2026-11-11 16:16 UTC [XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-spruce-field-tested) Hidden $82.21 164 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $82.21 | 90.00% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 1.0% covert 2.0% red 2.5% Knives 2.8% extraordinary 4.0% Restricted 10.0% restricted 5.0% #8847ff 8.0% classified 12.5% consumer 52.3% best hit $759 (9.23x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt