--- title: "Miracle case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Miracle ($10.28) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.01% from 16 items with odds, observed 96.75% over 1,748 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/miracle rendered: 2026-11-11T14:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Miracle](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/miracle) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Miracle A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/miracle?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/miracle?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/miracle) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/miracle?window=all) Price · $10.28 · 20.55 coins Advertised RTP · 90.01% · EV $9.25 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.75% · 1,748 openings, odds method Variance · 12.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 30.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 39.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.66% ±42.36 262 openings 7 days · 100.10% ±19.18 1,278 openings 30 days · 96.75% ±16.40 1,748 openings since tracking started · 96.75% ±16.40 1,748 openings 43.5% 86.5% 129.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/miracle?window=24h) | 262 | 86.66% ±42.4 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/miracle?window=7d) | 1,278 | 100.10% ±19.2 | +1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/miracle) | 1,748 | 96.75% ±16.4 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/miracle?window=all) | 1,748 | 96.75% ±16.4 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,748 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $9,355 18,710 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Autotronic (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,706 3,412 coins | 0.9% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,534 3,068 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-katowice-2014) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,316 2,632 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $264 527 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $259 519 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $259 519 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $259 517 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $149 298 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $135 270 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $130 259 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) | 30.0% | $14.33 28.65 coins | 46.5% | 534 | 524.4 | 1.02× | | [Tec-9 \| Rust Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rust-leaf-field-tested) | 30.0% | $13.87 27.73 coins | 45.0% | 537 | 524.4 | 1.02× | | [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) | 10.0% | $2.67 5.34 coins | 2.9% | 182 | 174.8 | 1.04× | | [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.55 1.09 coins | 0.6% | 155 | 174.8 | 0.89× | | [MAG-7 \| Foresight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-field-tested) | 19.9% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 339 | 348.1 | 0.97× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Autotronic (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $10.28 20.55 coins $1,706 3,412 coins 166.0x 2026-11-07 18:08 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=miracle) [MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) Hidden $10.28 20.55 coins $2.67 5.34 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) Hidden $10.28 20.55 coins $0.55 1.09 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) Hidden $10.28 20.55 coins $14.33 28.65 coins 1.39x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) Hidden $10.28 20.55 coins $14.33 28.65 coins 1.39x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) Hidden $10.28 20.55 coins $14.33 28.65 coins 1.39x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [Tec-9 | Rust Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rust-leaf-field-tested) Hidden $10.28 20.55 coins $13.87 27.73 coins 1.35x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [Tec-9 | Rust Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rust-leaf-field-tested) Hidden $10.28 20.55 coins $13.87 27.73 coins 1.35x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [Tec-9 | Rust Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rust-leaf-field-tested) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $10.28 20.55 coins $13.87 27.73 coins 1.35x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) Hidden $10.28 20.55 coins $14.33 28.65 coins 1.39x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [Tec-9 | Rust Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rust-leaf-field-tested) Hidden $10.28 20.55 coins $13.87 27.73 coins 1.35x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.28 | 90.01% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% knifes 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% high 0.0% gold 0.0% covert knife 0.0% restricted 30.0% Uncommon 30.0% mil spec 10.0% #4b69ff 19.9% best hit $1,706 (166.0x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.01 on average: an expected loss of $9.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt