--- title: "Mirage Charm case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mirage Charm ($15.17) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 10 items with odds, observed 74.51% over 1,117 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mirage-charm rendered: 2026-11-11T19:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Mirage Charm](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mirage-charm) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Mirage Charm A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mirage-charm?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mirage-charm?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mirage-charm) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mirage-charm?window=all) Price · $15.17 · 30.34 coins Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $13.65 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 74.51% · 1,117 openings, odds method Variance · 45.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 75.05% ±44.58 886 openings 30 days · 74.51% ±39.71 1,117 openings since tracking started · 74.51% ±39.71 1,117 openings -0.5% 208.5% 417.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mirage-charm?window=24h) | 12 | 33.56% ±383.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mirage-charm?window=7d) | 886 | 75.05% ±44.6 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mirage-charm) | 1,117 | 74.51% ±39.7 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mirage-charm?window=all) | 1,117 | 74.51% ±39.7 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,117 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Charm \| Baby Karat CT charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-ct) | 1 in 2,000 | $3,848 7,697 coins | 14.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,805 3,610 coins | 6.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $510 1,020 coins | 11.2% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.90× | | [Charm \| Diner Dog charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diner-dog) | 1 in 167 | $270 540 coins | 11.9% | 5 | 6.7 | 0.75× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $130 260 coins | 19.1% | 28 | 22.3 | 1.25× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $50.13 100 coins | 7.3% | 25 | 22.3 | 1.12× | | [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $40.53 81.05 coins | 7.4% | 37 | 27.9 | 1.32× | | [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $25.16 50.31 coins | 9.2% | 57 | 55.9 | 1.02× | | [Charm \| Lil' Whiskers charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-whiskers) | 1 in 11 | $15.58 31.15 coins | 10.3% | 95 | 100.5 | 0.94× | | [Charm \| Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) | 78.5% | $0.50 1 coins | 2.9% | 867 | 876.8 | 0.99× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $15.17 30.34 coins $510 1,020 coins 33.62x 2026-11-09 20:13 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $15.17 30.34 coins $510 1,020 coins 33.62x 2026-11-05 22:57 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $15.17 30.34 coins $510 1,020 coins 33.62x 2026-11-04 07:12 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=mirage-charm) [Charm | Lil' Whiskers charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-whiskers) Hidden $15.17 30.34 coins $15.58 31.15 coins 1.03x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) [eliboti](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/eliboti) $15.17 30.34 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC [P90 | Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.17 30.34 coins $40.53 81.05 coins 2.67x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $15.17 30.34 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) [eliboti](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/eliboti) $15.17 30.34 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $15.17 30.34 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $15.17 30.34 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) [eliboti](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/eliboti) $15.17 30.34 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $15.17 30.34 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $15.17 30.34 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.17 | 89.97% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed rare 0.1% gold 0.1% epic 0.3% #d32ce6 0.6% covert 4.5% Industrial Grade 2.0% Rare 5.0% #8847ff 9.0% #4b69ff 78.5% best hit $510 (33.62x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt