--- title: "Mirage case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Mirage ($6.23) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 8 items with odds, observed 93.66% over 468 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mirage rendered: 2026-11-11T18:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Mirage](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mirage) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Mirage A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mirage?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mirage?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mirage) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mirage?window=all) Price · $6.23 · 12.45 coins Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $5.60 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.66% · 468 openings, odds method Variance · 5.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 46 openings · below min 7 days · 98.08% ±23.35 410 openings 30 days · 93.66% ±21.85 468 openings since tracking started · 93.66% ±21.85 468 openings -0.5% 60.8% 122.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mirage?window=24h) | 46 | 24.15% ±69.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mirage?window=7d) | 410 | 98.08% ±23.3 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mirage) | 468 | 93.66% ±21.9 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mirage?window=all) | 468 | 93.66% ±21.9 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 468 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Mudder (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-mudder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $71.17 142 coins | 19.1% | 8 | 7.0 | 1.14× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $59.51 119 coins | 26.6% | 11 | 11.7 | 0.94× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $42.01 84.01 coins | 37.5% | 26 | 23.4 | 1.11× | | [MP7 \| Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-field-tested) | 12.0% | $5.63 11.26 coins | 12.1% | 52 | 56.2 | 0.93× | | [P250 \| Contamination (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contamination-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.61 3.21 coins | 1.4% | 26 | 23.4 | 1.11× | | [XM1014 \| Entombed (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.56 3.12 coins | 1.4% | 19 | 23.4 | 0.81× | | [UMP-45 \| Delusion (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-delusion-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.92 1.83 coins | 1.6% | 42 | 46.8 | 0.90× | | [P90 \| Sand Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-field-tested) | 59.0% | $0.04 0.07 coins | 0.4% | 284 | 276.1 | 1.03× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=mirage) [P90 | Sand Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-field-tested) Hidden $6.23 12.45 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-field-tested) Hidden $6.23 12.45 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [P250 | Contamination (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contamination-factory-new) Hidden $6.23 12.45 coins $1.61 3.21 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-field-tested) [Greg](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Greg) $6.23 12.45 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-field-tested) Hidden $6.23 12.45 coins $42.01 84.01 coins 6.75x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [MP7 | Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-field-tested) Hidden $6.23 12.45 coins $5.63 11.26 coins 0.90x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-field-tested) Hidden $6.23 12.45 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [XM1014 | Entombed (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-field-tested) Hidden $6.23 12.45 coins $1.56 3.12 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [MP7 | Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-field-tested) Hidden $6.23 12.45 coins $5.63 11.26 coins 0.90x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [XM1014 | Entombed (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-field-tested) Hidden $6.23 12.45 coins $1.56 3.12 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.23 | 89.98% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed industrial 18.5% Covert 2.5% extraordinary 5.0% pink 5.0% Mil Spec 10.0% consumer 59.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt