--- title: "Mission Failed case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mission Failed ($1.60) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.84% from 16 items with odds, observed 86.65% over 650 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mission-failed rendered: 2026-11-11T13:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Mission Failed](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mission-failed) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Mission Failed A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mission-failed?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mission-failed?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mission-failed) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mission-failed?window=all) Price · $1.60 · 3.2 coins Advertised RTP · 89.84% · EV $1.44 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.65% · 650 openings, odds method Variance · 5.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 48.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 52.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 38 openings · below min 7 days · 86.52% ±18.61 592 openings 30 days · 86.65% ±17.76 650 openings since tracking started · 86.65% ±17.76 650 openings 37.5% 111.5% 185.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mission-failed?window=24h) | 38 | 111.48% ±73.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mission-failed?window=7d) | 592 | 86.52% ±18.6 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mission-failed) | 650 | 86.65% ±17.8 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mission-failed?window=all) | 650 | 86.65% ±17.8 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 650 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $301 602 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $250 500 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $202 405 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $153 306 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $10.02 20.04 coins | 7.0% | 10 | 6.5 | 1.54× | | [MAG-7 \| Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $6.58 13.16 coins | 4.6% | 2 | 6.5 | 0.31× | | [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $6.14 12.28 coins | 4.3% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.08× | | [P2000 \| Space Race (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $4.68 9.35 coins | 3.3% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.08× | | [Nova \| Clear Polymer (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-clear-polymer-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $3.83 7.66 coins | 2.7% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.08× | | [M4A4 \| Griffin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $3.54 7.07 coins | 2.5% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.23× | | [AWP \| PAW (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-factory-new) | 42.0% | $2.47 4.94 coins | 72.1% | 264 | 272.9 | 0.97× | | [P250 \| Facility Draft (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-facility-draft-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.2% | 66 | 58.5 | 1.13× | | [P90 \| Freight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.1% | 60 | 65.0 | 0.92× | | [SG 553 \| Waves Perforated (Field-Tested) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-waves-perforated-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.1% | 70 | 65.0 | 1.08× | | [SCAR-20 \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 62 | 65.0 | 0.95× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 13.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 87 | 84.5 | 1.03× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=mission-failed) [AWP | PAW (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-factory-new) Hidden $1.60 3.2 coins $2.47 4.94 coins 1.54x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [AWP | PAW (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-factory-new) Hidden $1.60 3.2 coins $2.47 4.94 coins 1.54x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [P250 | Facility Draft (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-facility-draft-factory-new) Hidden $1.60 3.2 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [AWP | PAW (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-factory-new) Hidden $1.60 3.2 coins $2.47 4.94 coins 1.54x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $1.60 3.2 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [MAC-10 | Toybox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-factory-new) Hidden $1.60 3.2 coins $10.02 20.04 coins 6.26x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [SG 553 | Waves Perforated (Field-Tested) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-waves-perforated-field-tested) Hidden $1.60 3.2 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [SCAR-20 | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-factory-new) Hidden $1.60 3.2 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [P250 | Facility Draft (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-facility-draft-factory-new) Hidden $1.60 3.2 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [SCAR-20 | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-factory-new) Hidden $1.60 3.2 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.60 | 89.84% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert knife 0.0% industrial 0.0% classified 1.0% mil spec 1.0% restricted 45.0% Mythical 1.0% Common 9.0% #4b69ff 23.0% #B0C3D9 10.0% consumer 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.84 on average: an expected loss of $10.16 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt