--- title: "Mission Success case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mission Success ($119.96) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mission-success rendered: 2026-11-11T23:38Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Mission Success](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mission-success) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Mission Success A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mission-success?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mission-success?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mission-success) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mission-success?window=all) Price · $119.96 · 240 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $107.96 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mission-success?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mission-success?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mission-success) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mission-success?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $528 1,057 coins | 24.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 20 | $506 1,012 coins | 23.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 20 | $451 903 coins | 20.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $290 580 coins | 13.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SCAR-20 \| Brass (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-brass-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $74.30 149 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $73.82 148 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Caiman (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-caiman-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $73.78 148 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Caiman (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $40.22 80.43 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $40.01 80.02 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $39.94 79.87 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Business Class (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $39.46 78.91 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) | 45.0% | $0.25 0.5 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=mission-success) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $120 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 25.0% Mil Spec Grade 5.0% classified 10.0% industrial 10.0% mil spec 5.0% restricted 45.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt