---
title: "Mixy case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Mixy ($13.35) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 24 items with odds, observed 78.26% over 5,344 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mixy
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:31Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Mixy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mixy)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Mixy

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mixy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mixy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mixy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mixy?window=all)

Price · $13.35 · 26.69 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $12.01 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.26% · 5,344 openings, odds method

Variance · 25.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 59 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 95.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 67.19% ±46.35 461 openings

7 days · 80.88% ±18.69 2,836 openings

30 days · 78.26% ±13.61 5,344 openings

since tracking started · 78.26% ±13.61 5,344 openings

20.0% 67.0% 114.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mixy?window=24h) | 461 | 67.19% ±46.4 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mixy?window=7d) | 2,836 | 80.88% ±18.7 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mixy) | 5,344 | 78.26% ±13.6 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mixy?window=all) | 5,344 | 78.26% ±13.6 | −1.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,344 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,263 2,526 coins | 5.3% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,191 2,383 coins | 5.0% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,129 2,258 coins | 4.7% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,015 2,029 coins | 4.2% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.75× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $967 1,934 coins | 4.0% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.50× |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-control-panel-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $873 1,745 coins | 3.6% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.75× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $696 1,392 coins | 2.9% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.75× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $695 1,391 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 2,000 | $571 1,141 coins | 2.4% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.75× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $438 876 coins | 1.8% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.12× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $370 740 coins | 1.5% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.12× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $245 489 coins | 1.0% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Knives](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $244 489 coins | 1.0% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $242 485 coins | 1.0% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.12× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $110 219 coins | 9.1% | 61 | 53.4 | 1.14× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $106 212 coins | 8.8% | 48 | 53.4 | 0.90× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-arboreal-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $51.12 102 coins | 4.3% | 50 | 53.4 | 0.94× |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Guerrilla (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-guerrilla-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $51.00 102 coins | 4.2% | 66 | 53.4 | 1.24× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-factory-new) | 10.0% | $12.01 24.01 coins | 10.0% | 529 | 534.4 | 0.99× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Palm (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-palm-field-tested) | 10.0% | $11.87 23.74 coins | 9.9% | 558 | 534.4 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $11.62 23.23 coins | 9.7% | 523 | 534.4 | 0.98× |
| [XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-teclu-burner-field-tested) | 21.0% | $0.58 1.16 coins | 1.0% | 1,135 | 1122.2 | 1.01× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) | 21.0% | $0.55 1.09 coins | 1.0% | 1,095 | 1122.2 | 0.98× |
| [SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) | 23.3% | $0.32 0.64 coins | 0.6% | 1,253 | 1245.2 | 1.01× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $13.35 26.69 coins $1,263 2,526 coins 94.66x 2026-11-07 18:14 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $13.35 26.69 coins $1,191 2,383 coins 89.28x 2026-11-07 02:59 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $13.35 26.69 coins $1,191 2,383 coins 89.28x 2026-11-03 02:06 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $13.35 26.69 coins $1,129 2,258 coins 84.60x 2026-11-09 01:11 UTC

[Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) [fortune](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/fortune) $13.35 26.69 coins $1,015 2,029 coins 76.03x 2026-11-07 11:21 UTC

[Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) Hidden $13.35 26.69 coins $1,015 2,029 coins 76.03x 2026-11-03 23:32 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) Hidden $13.35 26.69 coins $967 1,934 coins 72.47x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) Hidden $13.35 26.69 coins $967 1,934 coins 72.47x 2026-11-06 18:56 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) Hidden $13.35 26.69 coins $967 1,934 coins 72.47x 2026-11-04 23:30 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) Hidden $13.35 26.69 coins $967 1,934 coins 72.47x 2026-11-02 23:44 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=mixy)

[SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $13.35 26.69 coins $0.32 0.64 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[AK-47 | Green Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $13.35 26.69 coins $12.01 24.01 coins 0.90x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.35 26.69 coins $11.62 23.23 coins 0.87x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $13.35 26.69 coins $0.32 0.64 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-teclu-burner-field-tested) Hidden $13.35 26.69 coins $0.58 1.16 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) [fortune](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/fortune) $13.35 26.69 coins $0.55 1.09 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $13.35 26.69 coins $0.32 0.64 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $13.35 26.69 coins $0.32 0.64 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-teclu-burner-field-tested) Hidden $13.35 26.69 coins $0.58 1.16 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) Hidden $13.35 26.69 coins $0.55 1.09 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.35 | 89.99% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 21.0% covert 0.5% Covert 0.1% legendary 0.1% #D32CE6 0.1% extraordinary 3.0% Knives 0.1% gold 1.0% mil spec 10.0% #87c7ff 10.0% industrial 10.0% restricted 21.0% Consumer Grade 23.3% best hit $1,263 (94.66x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt