--- title: "Moonshine case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Moonshine ($1,572.97) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 14 items with odds, observed 69.28% over 364 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/moonshine rendered: 2026-11-11T13:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Moonshine](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/moonshine) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Moonshine A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/moonshine?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/moonshine?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/moonshine) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/moonshine?window=all) Price · $1,572.97 · 3,146 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1,415.67 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 69.28% · 364 openings, odds method Variance · 8.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 56 openings · below min 7 days · 69.28% ±30.50 364 openings 30 days · 69.28% ±30.50 364 openings since tracking started · 69.28% ±30.50 364 openings -0.5% 71.5% 143.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/moonshine?window=24h) | 56 | 64.90% ±77.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/moonshine?window=7d) | 364 | 69.28% ±30.5 | −1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/moonshine) | 364 | 69.28% ±30.5 | −1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/moonshine?window=all) | 364 | 69.28% ±30.5 | −1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 364 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 333 | $52.4K 104,780 coins | 11.1% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $41.2K 82,490 coins | 14.6% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $18.7K 37,392 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $9,355 18,710 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $8,979 17,957 coins | 9.5% | 6 | 5.5 | 1.10× | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $8,972 17,944 coins | 9.5% | 2 | 5.5 | 0.37× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 57 | $7,898 15,795 coins | 9.8% | 6 | 6.4 | 0.94× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $7,754 15,508 coins | 9.6% | 8 | 6.4 | 1.26× | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 57 | $7,752 15,504 coins | 9.6% | 2 | 6.4 | 0.31× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $4,097 8,194 coins | 8.7% | 13 | 10.9 | 1.19× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $2,730 5,460 coins | 7.7% | 21 | 14.6 | 1.44× | | [Sticker \| Happy (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-happy-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 20 | $2,121 4,242 coins | 7.5% | 17 | 18.2 | 0.93× | | [USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $24.16 48.32 coins | 0.1% | 33 | 29.1 | 1.13× | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) | 70.8% | $7.51 15.01 coins | 0.4% | 254 | 257.5 | 0.99× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $1,573 3,146 coins $41.2K 82,490 coins 26.22x 2026-11-07 03:11 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) Hidden $1,573 3,146 coins $9,355 18,710 coins 5.95x 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) Hidden $1,573 3,146 coins $8,979 17,957 coins 5.71x 2026-11-11 12:06 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) Hidden $1,573 3,146 coins $8,979 17,957 coins 5.71x 2026-11-07 05:32 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) Hidden $1,573 3,146 coins $8,979 17,957 coins 5.71x 2026-11-07 03:15 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) Hidden $1,573 3,146 coins $8,979 17,957 coins 5.71x 2026-11-07 03:15 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) Hidden $1,573 3,146 coins $8,979 17,957 coins 5.71x 2026-11-07 03:13 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) Hidden $1,573 3,146 coins $8,979 17,957 coins 5.71x 2026-11-07 03:09 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) Hidden $1,573 3,146 coins $8,972 17,944 coins 5.70x 2026-11-07 05:32 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) Hidden $1,573 3,146 coins $8,972 17,944 coins 5.70x 2026-11-05 22:01 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=moonshine) [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $1,573 3,146 coins $7.51 15.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:06 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $1,573 3,146 coins $7.51 15.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:06 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $1,573 3,146 coins $7.51 15.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:06 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $1,573 3,146 coins $7.51 15.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:06 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $1,573 3,146 coins $7.51 15.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:06 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $1,573 3,146 coins $7.51 15.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:06 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $1,573 3,146 coins $7.51 15.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:06 UTC [Sticker | Happy (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-happy-gold-boston-2018) [fficient](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/fficient) $1,573 3,146 coins $2,121 4,242 coins 1.35x 2026-11-11 12:06 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $1,573 3,146 coins $7.51 15.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:06 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $1,573 3,146 coins $7.51 15.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,573 | 90.00% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.3% covert 77.8% extraordinary 0.1% legendary 8.8% other 5.0% mil spec 8.0% best hit $41.2K (26.22x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt