--- title: "Motion Maker case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Motion Maker ($1,219.41) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 160.95% over 20 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/motion-maker rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Motion Maker](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/motion-maker) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Motion Maker A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/motion-maker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/motion-maker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/motion-maker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/motion-maker?window=all) Price · $1,219.41 · 2,439 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1,097.46 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 160.95% · 20 openings, odds method Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 20 openings · below min 30 days · 20 openings · below min since tracking started · 20 openings · below min 45.5% 140.3% 235.0% **Small sample.** 20 openings and 1.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/motion-maker?window=24h) | 12 | 140.29% ±94.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/motion-maker?window=7d) | 20 | 160.95% ±72.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/motion-maker) | 20 | 160.95% ±72.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/motion-maker?window=all) | 20 | 160.95% ±72.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $15.1K 30,112 coins | 13.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 50 | $7,651 15,302 coins | 13.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $4,761 9,523 coins | 13.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $4,209 8,418 coins | 13.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 22 | $2,251 4,502 coins | 9.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1,661 3,323 coins | 7.6% | 2 | 1.0 | 2.00× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $1,002 2,005 coins | 9.1% | 4 | 2.0 | 2.00× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) | 10.0% | $809 1,619 coins | 7.4% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 10.0% | $527 1,055 coins | 4.8% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.50× | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 15.0% | $300 600 coins | 4.1% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 15.0% | $200 401 coins | 2.7% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× | | [AWP \| Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) | 21.0% | $49.51 99.01 coins | 0.9% | 1 | 4.2 | 0.24× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) Hidden $1,219 2,439 coins $15.1K 30,112 coins 12.35x 2026-11-09 15:03 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,219 2,439 coins $7,651 15,302 coins 6.27x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $1,219 2,439 coins $4,761 9,523 coins 3.90x 2026-11-10 16:33 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,219 2,439 coins $1,661 3,323 coins 1.36x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,219 2,439 coins $1,661 3,323 coins 1.36x 2026-11-10 16:33 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) [BreeTheG](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BreeTheG) $1,219 2,439 coins $1,002 2,005 coins 0.82x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,219 2,439 coins $1,002 2,005 coins 0.82x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,219 2,439 coins $1,002 2,005 coins 0.82x 2026-11-10 16:33 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,219 2,439 coins $1,002 2,005 coins 0.82x 2026-11-09 15:03 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $1,219 2,439 coins $809 1,619 coins 0.66x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=motion-maker) [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $1,219 2,439 coins $809 1,619 coins 0.66x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $1,219 2,439 coins $200 401 coins 0.16x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $1,219 2,439 coins $200 401 coins 0.16x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,219 2,439 coins $1,661 3,323 coins 1.36x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $1,219 2,439 coins $527 1,055 coins 0.43x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $1,219 2,439 coins $7,651 15,302 coins 6.27x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,219 2,439 coins $1,002 2,005 coins 0.82x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) [BreeTheG](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BreeTheG) $1,219 2,439 coins $1,002 2,005 coins 0.82x 2026-11-10 22:38 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,219 2,439 coins $1,002 2,005 coins 0.82x 2026-11-10 16:33 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $1,219 2,439 coins $4,761 9,523 coins 3.90x 2026-11-10 16:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,219 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 1.0% covert 35.5% contraband 3.0% Covert 19.5% classified 10.0% covert knife 10.0% other 21.0% best hit $15.1K (12.35x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt