--- title: "Musky Chest case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Musky Chest ($57.88) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 105.72% over 56 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/musky-chest rendered: 2026-11-11T22:13Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Musky Chest](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/musky-chest) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Musky Chest A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/musky-chest?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/musky-chest?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/musky-chest) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/musky-chest?window=all) Price · $57.88 · 116 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $52.09 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 105.72% · 56 openings, odds method Variance · 3.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 28 openings · below min 30 days · 56 openings · below min since tracking started · 56 openings · below min 36.5% 108.5% 180.5% **Small sample.** 56 openings and 5.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/musky-chest?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/musky-chest?window=7d) | 28 | 108.41% ±71.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/musky-chest) | 56 | 105.72% ±50.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/musky-chest?window=all) | 56 | 105.72% ±50.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 56 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $452 903 coins | 26.0% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.19× | | [★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $339 678 coins | 19.5% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.19× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $284 568 coins | 16.4% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.79× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $200 401 coins | 11.5% | 4 | 1.7 | 2.38× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $199 397 coins | 11.4% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $124 248 coins | 7.1% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $74.07 148 coins | 4.3% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $57.70 115 coins | 3.3% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.19× | | [SG 553 \| Gator Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-gator-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $5.71 11.42 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× | | [Tec-9 \| Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-field-tested) | 73.0% | $0.04 0.07 coins | 0.0% | 42 | 40.9 | 1.03× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=musky-chest) [Tec-9 | Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-field-tested) Hidden $57.88 116 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 01:33 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-forest-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $57.88 116 coins $452 903 coins 7.80x 2026-11-09 01:33 UTC [Tec-9 | Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-field-tested) Hidden $57.88 116 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 01:33 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $57.88 116 coins $57.70 115 coins 1.00x 2026-11-09 01:33 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-forest-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $57.88 116 coins $284 568 coins 4.91x 2026-11-09 01:33 UTC [Tec-9 | Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-field-tested) Hidden $57.88 116 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 01:33 UTC [Tec-9 | Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-field-tested) Hidden $57.88 116 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 20:10 UTC [Tec-9 | Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-field-tested) Hidden $57.88 116 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 20:10 UTC [Tec-9 | Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-field-tested) Hidden $57.88 116 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 20:10 UTC [★ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $57.88 116 coins $339 678 coins 5.86x 2026-11-08 20:10 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $57.88 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 3.0% covert 9.0% Covert 3.0% covert knife 6.0% other 3.0% Industrial Grade 3.0% #4b69ff 73.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt