---
title: "mystery box case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "mystery box ($6,208.31) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 52 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mystery-box
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:41Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [mystery box](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mystery-box)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · mystery box

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mystery-box?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mystery-box?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mystery-box) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mystery-box?window=all)

Price · $6,208.31 · 12,417 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $5,587.48 from 52 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 2.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 42.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 46.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mystery-box?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mystery-box?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mystery-box) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mystery-box?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 52 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $217K 434,217 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $112K 223,312 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $73.5K 147,047 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $72.4K 144,822 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $52.4K 104,780 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $41.2K 82,490 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $36.5K 72,902 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $36.3K 72,651 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $31.6K 63,128 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $26.7K 53,347 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $25.5K 51,019 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $24.8K 49,625 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $18.7K 37,392 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $15.1K 30,112 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $12.1K 24,151 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $11.7K 23,410 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $10.9K 21,888 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $10.6K 21,246 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $10.4K 20,866 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $9,925 19,850 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $9,909 19,817 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $9,900 19,800 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $9,847 19,695 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $9,483 18,967 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| HellRaisers (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $9,457 18,914 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $9,398 18,795 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $9,356 18,711 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 40.0% | $9,355 18,710 coins | 67.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $9,318 18,637 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $8,979 17,957 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $8,972 17,944 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $8,862 17,724 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $8,675 17,351 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $8,347 16,693 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $8,338 16,675 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $8,079 16,159 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $7,898 15,795 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $7,754 15,508 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $7,752 15,504 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $7,714 15,428 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $7,651 15,302 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $7,444 14,887 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-buckshot-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $49.33 98.65 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $48.70 97.39 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $37.48 74.96 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $35.95 71.89 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $33.57 67.14 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $33.56 67.12 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Digital Architect (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $33.09 66.18 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $30.12 60.24 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $26.67 53.34 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $26.63 53.26 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=mystery-box)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6,208 | 90.00% | 52 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 55.4% legendary 1.6% remarkable 0.5% extraordinary 16.3% contraband 0.1% #EB4B4B 0.1% restricted 14.0% #8847ff 4.0% classified 8.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt