--- title: "Naughty List case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Naughty List ($28.28) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 77.77% over 36 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/naughty-list rendered: 2026-11-11T20:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Naughty List](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/naughty-list) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Naughty List A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/naughty-list?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/naughty-list?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/naughty-list) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/naughty-list?window=all) Price · $28.28 · 56.55 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $25.44 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.77% · 36 openings, odds method Variance · 5.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 28 openings · below min 30 days · 36 openings · below min since tracking started · 36 openings · below min -0.5% 82.8% 166.0% **Small sample.** 36 openings and 7.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/naughty-list?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/naughty-list?window=7d) | 28 | 78.63% ±86.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/naughty-list) | 36 | 77.77% ±76.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/naughty-list?window=all) | 36 | 77.77% ±76.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,129 2,258 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,050 2,099 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,018 2,037 coins | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 500 | $500 1,000 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $333 666 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $168 336 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-factory-new) | 18.4% | $44.27 88.53 coins | 32.1% | 10 | 6.6 | 1.51× | | [USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) | 80.0% | $13.42 26.84 coins | 42.2% | 26 | 28.8 | 0.90× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=naughty-list) [USP-S | Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) Hidden $28.28 56.55 coins $13.42 26.84 coins 0.47x 2026-11-08 20:04 UTC [USP-S | Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) Hidden $28.28 56.55 coins $13.42 26.84 coins 0.47x 2026-11-08 20:04 UTC [USP-S | Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) Hidden $28.28 56.55 coins $13.42 26.84 coins 0.47x 2026-11-08 20:04 UTC [USP-S | Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) Hidden $28.28 56.55 coins $13.42 26.84 coins 0.47x 2026-11-08 20:04 UTC [USP-S | Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) Hidden $28.28 56.55 coins $13.42 26.84 coins 0.47x 2026-11-08 20:04 UTC [M4A1-S | Control Panel (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-factory-new) Hidden $28.28 56.55 coins $44.27 88.53 coins 1.57x 2026-11-08 20:04 UTC [USP-S | Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) Hidden $28.28 56.55 coins $13.42 26.84 coins 0.47x 2026-11-08 20:04 UTC [USP-S | Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) [Ravtok](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Ravtok) $28.28 56.55 coins $13.42 26.84 coins 0.47x 2026-11-08 20:04 UTC [M4A1-S | Control Panel (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-factory-new) Hidden $28.28 56.55 coins $44.27 88.53 coins 1.57x 2026-11-08 14:44 UTC [M4A1-S | Control Panel (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-factory-new) Hidden $28.28 56.55 coins $44.27 88.53 coins 1.57x 2026-11-08 14:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $28.28 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 0.3% covert 1.3% Legendary 18.4% mil spec 80.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt