---
title: "Nebula case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Nebula ($30.52) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 88.20% over 331 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nebula
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Nebula](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nebula)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Nebula

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nebula?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nebula?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nebula) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nebula?window=all)

Price · $30.52 · 61.03 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $27.46 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.20% · 331 openings, odds method

Variance · 20.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 71 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 94.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 56 openings · below min

7 days · 281 openings · below min

30 days · 331 openings · below min

since tracking started · 331 openings · below min

21.0% 141.0% 261.0%

**Small sample.** 331 openings and 4.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nebula?window=24h) | 56 | 140.95% ±119.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nebula?window=7d) | 281 | 100.48% ±53.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nebula) | 331 | 88.20% ±49.0 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nebula?window=all) | 331 | 88.20% ±49.0 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 331 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $1,237 2,473 coins | 22.5% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.81× |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 200 | $1,044 2,089 coins | 19.0% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 250 | $835 1,669 coins | 12.2% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.51× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 167 | $632 1,265 coins | 13.8% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.01× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $326 653 coins | 11.9% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.30× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 100 | $226 451 coins | 8.2% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.51× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $117 234 coins | 4.3% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.30× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $62.66 125 coins | 2.3% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.60× |
| [Charm \| Semi-Precious charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-semi-precious) | 1 in 100 | $20.86 41.72 coins | 0.8% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.21× |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $7.07 14.13 coins | 2.1% | 29 | 26.5 | 1.10× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $4.88 9.75 coins | 1.4% | 26 | 26.5 | 0.98× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.36 4.72 coins | 0.7% | 33 | 26.5 | 1.25× |
| [P90 \| Module (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-module-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $1.65 3.3 coins | 0.5% | 27 | 26.5 | 1.02× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $1.04 2.07 coins | 0.3% | 17 | 26.5 | 0.64× |
| [Charm \| Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) | 1 in 13 | $0.50 1 coins | 0.1% | 25 | 26.5 | 0.94× |
| [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 45.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 154 | 149.0 | 1.03× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $30.52 61.03 coins $1,237 2,473 coins 40.52x 2026-11-11 02:25 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $30.52 61.03 coins $1,237 2,473 coins 40.52x 2026-11-08 15:13 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $30.52 61.03 coins $1,237 2,473 coins 40.52x 2026-11-05 07:00 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $30.52 61.03 coins $835 1,669 coins 27.35x 2026-11-11 02:26 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $30.52 61.03 coins $835 1,669 coins 27.35x 2026-11-08 15:32 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $30.52 61.03 coins $632 1,265 coins 20.72x 2026-11-08 15:17 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $30.52 61.03 coins $632 1,265 coins 20.72x 2026-11-06 08:20 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=nebula)

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $30.52 61.03 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

[Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $30.52 61.03 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

[Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) Hidden $30.52 61.03 coins $2.36 4.72 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) Hidden $30.52 61.03 coins $7.07 14.13 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

[Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $30.52 61.03 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) Hidden $30.52 61.03 coins $7.07 14.13 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

[Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) Hidden $30.52 61.03 coins $4.88 9.75 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $30.52 61.03 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $30.52 61.03 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:50 UTC

[Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $30.52 61.03 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 07:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $30.52 | 89.99% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 10.9% gold 1.5% Covert 0.6% covert knife 1.0% rare 1.0% Rare 8.0% classified 8.0% mil spec 8.0% violet 8.0% #4b69ff 8.0% consumer 45.0% best hit $1,237 (40.52x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt