--- title: "Negev Power case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Negev Power ($33.85) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 68.84% over 574 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/negev-power rendered: 2026-11-11T21:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Negev Power](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/negev-power) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Negev Power A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/negev-power?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/negev-power?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/negev-power) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/negev-power?window=all) Price · $33.85 · 67.69 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $30.46 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 68.84% · 574 openings, odds method Variance · 24.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 240 openings · below min 7 days · 478 openings · below min 30 days · 68.84% ±40.05 574 openings since tracking started · 68.84% ±40.05 574 openings 2.5% 65.0% 127.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/negev-power?window=24h) | 240 | 64.87% ±61.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/negev-power?window=7d) | 478 | 67.14% ±43.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/negev-power) | 574 | 68.84% ±40.1 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/negev-power?window=all) | 574 | 68.84% ±40.1 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 574 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Negev \| Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,598 3,196 coins | 52.5% | 5 | 5.7 | 0.87× | | [Negev \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $253 506 coins | 33.2% | 13 | 23.0 | 0.57× | | [M249 \| Blizzard Marbleized (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-blizzard-marbleized-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $89.99 180 coins | 5.9% | 9 | 11.5 | 0.78× | | [Souvenir M249 \| Gator Mesh (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-gator-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $77.52 155 coins | 5.1% | 10 | 11.5 | 0.87× | | [Negev \| Palm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-palm-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $18.92 37.84 coins | 1.2% | 11 | 11.5 | 0.96× | | [M249 \| Shipping Forecast (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-shipping-forecast-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $12.53 25.05 coins | 0.8% | 11 | 11.5 | 0.96× | | [M249 \| Jungle DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $11.24 22.47 coins | 0.7% | 7 | 11.5 | 0.61× | | [Negev \| Power Loader (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $3.66 7.31 coins | 0.2% | 10 | 11.5 | 0.87× | | [Negev \| Nuclear Waste (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1.47 2.94 coins | 0.0% | 5 | 5.7 | 0.87× | | [Negev \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 82.0% | $0.09 0.17 coins | 0.2% | 493 | 470.7 | 1.05× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) Hidden $33.85 67.69 coins $1,598 3,196 coins 47.21x 2026-11-11 15:19 UTC [Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) Hidden $33.85 67.69 coins $1,598 3,196 coins 47.21x 2026-11-11 14:58 UTC [Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) Hidden $33.85 67.69 coins $1,598 3,196 coins 47.21x 2026-11-10 19:01 UTC [Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) Hidden $33.85 67.69 coins $1,598 3,196 coins 47.21x 2026-11-06 11:09 UTC [Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) [Neowise](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Neowise) $33.85 67.69 coins $1,598 3,196 coins 47.21x 2026-11-03 13:31 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=negev-power) [M249 | Shipping Forecast (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-shipping-forecast-factory-new) Hidden $33.85 67.69 coins $12.53 25.05 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 21:14 UTC [Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-minimal-wear) Hidden $33.85 67.69 coins $0.09 0.17 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:14 UTC [Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-minimal-wear) Hidden $33.85 67.69 coins $0.09 0.17 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:14 UTC [Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-minimal-wear) Hidden $33.85 67.69 coins $0.09 0.17 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:14 UTC [Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-minimal-wear) Hidden $33.85 67.69 coins $0.09 0.17 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:14 UTC [Negev | Power Loader (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-factory-new) Hidden $33.85 67.69 coins $3.66 7.31 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 21:14 UTC [Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-minimal-wear) Hidden $33.85 67.69 coins $0.09 0.17 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:14 UTC [Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-minimal-wear) Hidden $33.85 67.69 coins $0.09 0.17 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:14 UTC [Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-minimal-wear) Hidden $33.85 67.69 coins $0.09 0.17 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-minimal-wear) Hidden $33.85 67.69 coins $0.09 0.17 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $33.85 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 1.0% #4b69ff 86.0% Industrial Grade 4.0% industrial 3.0% #87c7ff 2.0% consumer 2.0% #8847ff 2.0% best hit $1,598 (47.21x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt