--- title: "Neon Protocol case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Neon Protocol ($22.62) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 8 items with odds, observed 115.83% over 74 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neon-protocol rendered: 2026-11-11T20:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Neon Protocol](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neon-protocol) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Neon Protocol A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neon-protocol?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neon-protocol?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neon-protocol) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neon-protocol?window=all) Price · $22.62 · 45.24 coins Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $20.35 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 115.83% · 74 openings, odds method Variance · 3.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 34 openings · below min 30 days · 74 openings · below min since tracking started · 74 openings · below min 62.5% 281.8% 501.0% **Small sample.** 74 openings and 5.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neon-protocol?window=24h) | 6 | 347.22% ±153.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neon-protocol?window=7d) | 34 | 127.49% ±64.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neon-protocol) | 74 | 115.83% ±43.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neon-protocol?window=all) | 74 | 115.83% ±43.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 74 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 40 | $162 324 coins | 19.9% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.08× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $155 309 coins | 19.0% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.08× | | [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $151 302 coins | 18.5% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.16× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $59.61 119 coins | 11.7% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.01× | | [Souvenir P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $54.19 108 coins | 10.6% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.35× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $52.31 105 coins | 10.3% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.68× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $50.13 100 coins | 9.9% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.35× | | [Five-SeveN \| Coolant (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-factory-new) | 76.5% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.1% | 53 | 56.6 | 0.94× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=neon-protocol) [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $22.62 45.24 coins $162 324 coins 7.15x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $22.62 45.24 coins $155 309 coins 6.84x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-factory-new) Hidden $22.62 45.24 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-factory-new) Hidden $22.62 45.24 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-factory-new) Hidden $22.62 45.24 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $22.62 45.24 coins $155 309 coins 6.84x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $22.62 45.24 coins $50.13 100 coins 2.22x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-factory-new) Hidden $22.62 45.24 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-factory-new) Hidden $22.62 45.24 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC [Five-SeveN | Coolant (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-factory-new) [DemonDeeeeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/DemonDeeeeek) $22.62 45.24 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $22.62 | 89.98% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 2.5% covert 6.5% classified 6.5% Mythical 4.0% Industrial Grade 4.0% consumer 76.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt