--- title: "Neptune case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Neptune ($76.25) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 5 items with odds, observed 104.67% over 654 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neptune rendered: 2026-11-11T13:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Neptune](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neptune) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Neptune A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neptune?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neptune?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neptune) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neptune?window=all) Price · $76.25 · 152 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $68.62 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 104.67% · 654 openings, odds method Variance · 10.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 95.89% ±30.43 449 openings 30 days · 104.67% ±25.21 654 openings since tracking started · 104.67% ±25.21 654 openings 65.0% 97.8% 130.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neptune?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neptune?window=7d) | 449 | 95.89% ±30.4 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neptune) | 654 | 104.67% ±25.2 | +1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neptune?window=all) | 654 | 104.67% ±25.2 | +1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 654 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 200 | $1,505 3,010 coins | 11.0% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.53× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $1,178 2,355 coins | 25.7% | 9 | 9.8 | 0.92× | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $932 1,864 coins | 54.3% | 33 | 26.2 | 1.26× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $136 273 coins | 8.0% | 21 | 26.2 | 0.80× | | [SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) | 90.0% | $0.77 1.54 coins | 1.0% | 586 | 588.6 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $76.25 152 coins $1,505 3,010 coins 19.74x 2026-11-06 13:42 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $76.25 152 coins $1,505 3,010 coins 19.74x 2026-11-06 13:26 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $76.25 152 coins $1,505 3,010 coins 19.74x 2026-11-05 20:37 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $76.25 152 coins $1,505 3,010 coins 19.74x 2026-11-04 17:32 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $76.25 152 coins $1,505 3,010 coins 19.74x 2026-11-03 18:38 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $76.25 152 coins $1,178 2,355 coins 15.45x 2026-11-06 13:43 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [EliteRift1189](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/EliteRift1189) $76.25 152 coins $1,178 2,355 coins 15.45x 2026-11-06 13:31 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $76.25 152 coins $1,178 2,355 coins 15.45x 2026-11-03 18:37 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $76.25 152 coins $1,178 2,355 coins 15.45x 2026-11-03 01:07 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $76.25 152 coins $1,178 2,355 coins 15.45x 2026-11-03 01:03 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=neptune) [SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) Hidden $76.25 152 coins $0.77 1.54 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:45 UTC [SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) Hidden $76.25 152 coins $0.77 1.54 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:45 UTC [SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) Hidden $76.25 152 coins $0.77 1.54 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:45 UTC [SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) Hidden $76.25 152 coins $0.77 1.54 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:45 UTC [SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) Hidden $76.25 152 coins $0.77 1.54 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:45 UTC [SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) [fortune](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/fortune) $76.25 152 coins $0.77 1.54 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:45 UTC [SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) Hidden $76.25 152 coins $0.77 1.54 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:42 UTC [SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) Hidden $76.25 152 coins $0.77 1.54 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:42 UTC [SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) Hidden $76.25 152 coins $0.77 1.54 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:42 UTC [SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) Hidden $76.25 152 coins $0.77 1.54 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 10:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $76.25 | 89.99% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Knives 0.5% covert 5.5% classified 4.0% Mil Spec Grade 90.0% best hit $1,505 (19.74x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt