--- title: "Neura Charm case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Neura Charm ($291.58) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 75.35% over 154 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neura-charm rendered: 2026-11-11T23:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Neura Charm](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neura-charm) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Neura Charm A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neura-charm?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neura-charm?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neura-charm) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neura-charm?window=all) Price · $291.58 · 583 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $262.42 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 75.35% · 154 openings, odds method Variance · 10.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 32 openings · below min 7 days · 63.48% ±54.07 134 openings 30 days · 75.35% ±50.44 154 openings since tracking started · 75.35% ±50.44 154 openings -0.5% 63.0% 126.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neura-charm?window=24h) | 32 | 5.36% ±110.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neura-charm?window=7d) | 134 | 63.48% ±54.1 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neura-charm) | 154 | 75.35% ±50.4 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/neura-charm?window=all) | 154 | 75.35% ±50.4 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 154 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Charm \| Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) | 1 in 50 | $5,000 10,000 coins | 38.1% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.97× | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 50 | $3,592 7,183 coins | 27.4% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.97× | | [Sticker \| suNny (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sunny-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 50 | $2,528 5,057 coins | 19.3% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1,501 3,002 coins | 11.4% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.32× | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 50 | $500 1,000 coins | 3.8% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.97× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 90.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 142 | 138.6 | 1.02× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Charm | Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) Hidden $292 583 coins $5,000 10,000 coins 17.15x 2026-11-09 13:07 UTC [Charm | Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) Hidden $292 583 coins $5,000 10,000 coins 17.15x 2026-11-06 18:09 UTC [Charm | Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) Hidden $292 583 coins $5,000 10,000 coins 17.15x 2026-11-04 18:21 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $292 583 coins $3,592 7,183 coins 12.32x 2026-11-09 13:07 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $292 583 coins $3,592 7,183 coins 12.32x 2026-11-06 15:22 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Bufff](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Bufff) $292 583 coins $3,592 7,183 coins 12.32x 2026-11-05 20:36 UTC [Sticker | suNny (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sunny-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $292 583 coins $2,528 5,057 coins 8.67x 2026-11-06 15:24 UTC [Sticker | suNny (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sunny-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $292 583 coins $2,528 5,057 coins 8.67x 2026-11-04 22:37 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) Hidden $292 583 coins $1,501 3,002 coins 5.15x 2026-11-04 22:23 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $292 583 coins $500 1,000 coins 1.72x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=neura-charm) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $292 583 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:23 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $292 583 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:23 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $292 583 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:23 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $292 583 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:23 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $292 583 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:23 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $292 583 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:23 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $292 583 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:23 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $292 583 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:23 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $292 583 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $292 583 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $292 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed uncommon 2.0% covert 4.0% Extraordinary 2.0% other 2.0% #4b69ff 90.0% best hit $5,000 (17.15x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt