--- title: "Never Lucky case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Never Lucky ($7.89) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.95% from 16 items with odds, observed 92.79% over 25.5K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/never-lucky rendered: 2026-11-11T23:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Never Lucky](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/never-lucky) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Never Lucky A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/never-lucky?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/never-lucky?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/never-lucky) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/never-lucky?window=all) Price · $7.89 · 15.78 coins Advertised RTP · 89.95% · EV $7.10 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.79% · 25.5K openings, odds method Variance · 575.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 1,575 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6,027 openings · below min 7 days · 101.16% ±34.37 18.7K openings 30 days · 92.79% ±29.42 25.5K openings since tracking started · 92.79% ±29.42 25.5K openings 62.5% 146.3% 230.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/never-lucky?window=24h) | 6,027 | 169.04% ±60.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/never-lucky?window=7d) | 18.7K | 101.16% ±34.4 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/never-lucky) | 25.5K | 92.79% ±29.4 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/never-lucky?window=all) | 25.5K | 92.79% ±29.4 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25.5K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $36.3K 72,651 coins | 5.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 8,000 | $7,137 14,274 coins | 12.6% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 8,000 | $6,234 12,468 coins | 11.0% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-factory-new) | 1 in 8,000 | $6,222 12,443 coins | 11.0% | 5 | 3.2 | 1.57× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 4,000 | $3,746 7,492 coins | 13.2% | 8 | 6.4 | 1.25× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $1,551 3,102 coins | 5.5% | 8 | 6.4 | 1.25× | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $1,551 3,102 coins | 5.5% | 4 | 6.4 | 0.63× | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 4,000 | $1,520 3,040 coins | 5.4% | 7 | 6.4 | 1.10× | | [Souvenir SG 553 \| Integrale (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-integrale-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $1,296 2,593 coins | 4.6% | 9 | 6.4 | 1.41× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 4,000 | $1,271 2,542 coins | 4.5% | 5 | 6.4 | 0.78× | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $329 658 coins | 4.6% | 36 | 25.5 | 1.41× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 1,000 | $329 657 coins | 4.6% | 26 | 25.5 | 1.02× | | [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $327 655 coins | 4.6% | 25 | 25.5 | 0.98× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $308 617 coins | 4.3% | 27 | 25.5 | 1.06× | | [Negev \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $253 506 coins | 3.6% | 30 | 25.5 | 1.17× | | [SG 553 \| Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-army-sheen-factory-new) | 99.3% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 25,340 | 25359.2 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) Hidden $7.89 15.78 coins $7,137 14,274 coins 904.6x 2026-11-11 23:57 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) Hidden $7.89 15.78 coins $7,137 14,274 coins 904.6x 2026-11-11 18:18 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $7.89 15.78 coins $7,137 14,274 coins 904.6x 2026-11-03 04:36 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $7.89 15.78 coins $6,234 12,468 coins 790.1x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $7.89 15.78 coins $6,234 12,468 coins 790.1x 2026-11-05 16:34 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-factory-new) Hidden $7.89 15.78 coins $6,222 12,443 coins 788.6x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-factory-new) Hidden $7.89 15.78 coins $6,222 12,443 coins 788.6x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-factory-new) Hidden $7.89 15.78 coins $6,222 12,443 coins 788.6x 2026-11-05 11:30 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-factory-new) Hidden $7.89 15.78 coins $6,222 12,443 coins 788.6x 2026-11-05 09:25 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-factory-new) [cherrylea](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/cherrylea) $7.89 15.78 coins $6,222 12,443 coins 788.6x 2026-11-04 23:41 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=never-lucky) [SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-army-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $7.89 15.78 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:58 UTC [SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-army-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $7.89 15.78 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:58 UTC [SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-army-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $7.89 15.78 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:58 UTC [SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-army-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $7.89 15.78 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:58 UTC [SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-army-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $7.89 15.78 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:58 UTC [SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-army-sheen-factory-new) [FilthyDaDegen](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/FilthyDaDegen) $7.89 15.78 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:58 UTC [SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-army-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $7.89 15.78 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:58 UTC [SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-army-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $7.89 15.78 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:58 UTC [SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-army-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $7.89 15.78 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:58 UTC [SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-army-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $7.89 15.78 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.89 | 89.95% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% covert 0.3% other 0.0% classified 0.1% restricted 0.1% #4b69ff 0.1% consumer 99.3% best hit $7,137 (904.6x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.95 on average: an expected loss of $10.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt