--- title: "Nexus Box case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Nexus Box ($12.15) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 10 items with odds, observed 90.61% over 411 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nexus-box rendered: 2026-11-11T17:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Nexus Box](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nexus-box) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Nexus Box A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nexus-box?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nexus-box?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nexus-box) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nexus-box?window=all) Price · $12.15 · 24.29 coins Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $10.93 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.61% · 411 openings, odds method Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 24.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 52.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 91.06% ±7.28 408 openings 30 days · 90.61% ±7.25 411 openings since tracking started · 90.61% ±7.25 411 openings 82.5% 90.8% 99.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nexus-box?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nexus-box?window=7d) | 408 | 91.06% ±7.28 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nexus-box) | 411 | 90.61% ±7.25 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nexus-box?window=all) | 411 | 90.61% ±7.25 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 411 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $25.16 50.31 coins | 18.4% | 25 | 32.9 | 0.76× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $22.86 45.72 coins | 16.7% | 24 | 32.9 | 0.73× | | [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $20.66 41.32 coins | 15.1% | 50 | 32.9 | 1.52× | | [MAG-7 \| Chainmail (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-chainmail-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $18.32 36.63 coins | 13.4% | 36 | 32.9 | 1.09× | | [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $17.02 34.04 coins | 12.5% | 38 | 32.9 | 1.16× | | [MP7 \| Groundwater (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-groundwater-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $13.66 27.32 coins | 10.0% | 33 | 32.9 | 1.00× | | [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $8.35 16.7 coins | 6.1% | 30 | 32.9 | 0.91× | | [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $7.55 15.09 coins | 5.5% | 28 | 32.9 | 0.85× | | [Sawed-Off \| Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $3.01 6.01 coins | 2.2% | 31 | 32.9 | 0.94× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 28.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 116 | 115.1 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=nexus-box) [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $12.15 24.29 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:00 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $12.15 24.29 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:00 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $12.15 24.29 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:00 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $12.15 24.29 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:00 UTC [USP-S | Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) Hidden $12.15 24.29 coins $17.02 34.04 coins 1.40x 2026-11-10 16:00 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $12.15 24.29 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:00 UTC [MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) Hidden $12.15 24.29 coins $8.35 16.7 coins 0.69x 2026-11-10 16:00 UTC [SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) [Sorhex](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Sorhex) $12.15 24.29 coins $25.16 50.31 coins 2.07x 2026-11-10 16:00 UTC [SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $12.15 24.29 coins $25.16 50.31 coins 2.07x 2026-11-10 11:18 UTC [SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $12.15 24.29 coins $25.16 50.31 coins 2.07x 2026-11-10 11:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.15 | 89.97% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Rare 8.0% covert 16.0% #d32ee6 8.0% industrial 8.0% restricted 8.0% consumer 36.0% classified 8.0% other 8.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt