--- title: "Nexus case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Nexus ($23.34) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 71.01% over 4,844 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nexus rendered: 2026-11-11T14:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Nexus](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nexus) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Nexus A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nexus?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nexus?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nexus) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nexus?window=all) Price · $23.34 · 46.68 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $21.00 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 71.01% · 4,844 openings, odds method Variance · 137.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 408 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 300 openings · below min 7 days · 66.06% ±35.05 4,300 openings 30 days · 71.01% ±33.03 4,844 openings since tracking started · 71.01% ±33.03 4,844 openings -0.5% 110.3% 221.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nexus?window=24h) | 300 | 87.61% ±132.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nexus?window=7d) | 4,300 | 66.06% ±35.1 | −1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nexus) | 4,844 | 71.01% ±33.0 | −1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nexus?window=all) | 4,844 | 71.01% ±33.0 | −1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,844 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,355 18,710 coins | 4.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $7,714 15,428 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 6,667 | $6,648 13,296 coins | 4.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 5,000 | $5,803 11,607 coins | 5.5% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 3,333 | $5,754 11,508 coins | 8.2% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.38× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $4,806 9,611 coins | 11.4% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 2,000 | $3,617 7,234 coins | 8.6% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.24× | | [Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,667 | $2,877 5,754 coins | 8.2% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.34× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,429 | $2,844 5,688 coins | 9.5% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $2,112 4,224 coins | 7.0% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.18× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,358 2,716 coins | 6.5% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.83× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,138 2,277 coins | 5.4% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.03× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 833 | $1,024 2,049 coins | 5.9% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.03× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 833 | $750 1,501 coins | 4.3% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.20× | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 571 | $506 1,011 coins | 4.2% | 7 | 8.5 | 0.83× | | [Charm \| Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) | 99.0% | $0.50 1 coins | 2.4% | 4,801 | 4795.6 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $23.34 46.68 coins $6,648 13,296 coins 284.8x 2026-11-03 15:07 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $23.34 46.68 coins $5,803 11,607 coins 248.6x 2026-11-05 05:04 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $23.34 46.68 coins $5,754 11,508 coins 246.5x 2026-11-09 20:20 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $23.34 46.68 coins $5,754 11,508 coins 246.5x 2026-11-05 05:31 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $23.34 46.68 coins $3,617 7,234 coins 155.0x 2026-11-10 18:36 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $23.34 46.68 coins $3,617 7,234 coins 155.0x 2026-11-05 12:57 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $23.34 46.68 coins $3,617 7,234 coins 155.0x 2026-11-04 21:58 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) Hidden $23.34 46.68 coins $2,877 5,754 coins 123.3x 2026-11-04 21:52 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $23.34 46.68 coins $2,844 5,688 coins 121.9x 2026-11-05 05:13 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $23.34 46.68 coins $2,844 5,688 coins 121.9x 2026-11-03 12:20 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=nexus) [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $23.34 46.68 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $23.34 46.68 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $23.34 46.68 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $23.34 46.68 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $23.34 46.68 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $23.34 46.68 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $23.34 46.68 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) [nigxoo](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/nigxoo) $23.34 46.68 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $23.34 46.68 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:08 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $23.34 46.68 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $23.34 | 89.99% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.7% extraordinary 0.1% high 0.1% gold 0.1% #4b69ff 99.0% best hit $6,648 (284.8x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt