--- title: "NGA REFOND 10% ? case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "NGA REFOND 10% ? ($77.82) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 81.50% over 238 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nga-refond-10 rendered: 2026-11-12T02:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [NGA REFOND 10% ?](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nga-refond-10) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · NGA REFOND 10% ? A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nga-refond-10?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nga-refond-10?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nga-refond-10) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nga-refond-10?window=all) Price · $77.82 · 156 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 81.50% · 238 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 84 openings · below min 7 days · 180 openings · below min 30 days · 238 openings · below min since tracking started · 238 openings · below min 31.0% 91.8% 152.5% **Small sample.** 238 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nga-refond-10?window=24h) | 84 | 91.64% ±60.2 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nga-refond-10?window=7d) | 180 | 87.24% ±40.3 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nga-refond-10) | 238 | 81.50% ±34.2 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nga-refond-10?window=all) | 238 | 81.50% ±34.2 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Chicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $77.82 156 coins $1,010 2,020 coins 12.98x 2026-11-11 23:52 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $77.82 156 coins $1,010 2,020 coins 12.98x 2026-11-11 23:50 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $77.82 156 coins $1,010 2,020 coins 12.98x 2026-11-06 11:37 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [crazies](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/crazies) $77.82 156 coins $1,010 2,020 coins 12.98x 2026-11-03 09:26 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [crazies](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/crazies) $77.82 156 coins $1,010 2,020 coins 12.98x 2026-11-03 09:26 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $77.82 156 coins $873 1,745 coins 11.21x 2026-11-11 23:56 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $77.82 156 coins $873 1,745 coins 11.21x 2026-11-09 07:06 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $77.82 156 coins $873 1,745 coins 11.21x 2026-11-09 07:04 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $77.82 156 coins $873 1,745 coins 11.21x 2026-11-07 15:10 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [crazies](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/crazies) $77.82 156 coins $873 1,745 coins 11.21x 2026-11-03 09:26 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=nga-refond-10) [SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-army-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $77.82 156 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:58 UTC [SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-army-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $77.82 156 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:58 UTC [SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-army-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $77.82 156 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:58 UTC [SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-army-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $77.82 156 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:58 UTC [SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-army-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $77.82 156 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:58 UTC [SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-army-sheen-factory-new) [cherrylea](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/cherrylea) $77.82 156 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:58 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $77.82 156 coins $495 990 coins 6.36x 2026-11-11 23:57 UTC [SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-army-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $77.82 156 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:57 UTC [SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-army-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $77.82 156 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:57 UTC [SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-army-sheen-factory-new) Hidden $77.82 156 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 23:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,010 (12.98x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 81.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $81.50 on average: an expected loss of $18.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt